Statistical Tables | | Gathering Data

Prices Mixed, Sales Up in August

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale fell 4.5% in August from July. It was down 3% year-over-year.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 4.4% month-over-month. Year-over-year, it was up 6.2%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 13.9% year-over-year. There were 156 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

The median sales price for condos/lofts was down 8.7% year-over-year.

The average sales price was up 0.8% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/lofts rose 27.1% year-over-year. There were 183 condos/lofts sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, fell from 108.6% to 105.9% for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes fell from 100.7% to 99.1%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 32 for homes and 65 for condos/lofts. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for homes rose from +3.0 to +6.2. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 6.3 points to –3.4.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 0.1 of a point to +2.8. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 1 point to –0.2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis. 

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

August Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
	Prices		Unit			Yearly Change			Monthly Change
	Median	Average	Sales	DOM	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sales	Median	Average	Sales
San Francisco	$1,528,500	$2,071,390	156	32	105.9%	-3.0%	6.2%	13.9%	-4.5%	4.4%	-21.6%
D1: Northwest	$2,200,000	$3,166,533	15	5	106.0%	10.0%	31.3%	36.4%	-22.8%	-25.0%	-11.8%
D2: Central West	$1,530,500	$1,559,537	28	25	116.1%	-1.7%	-4.9%	-17.6%	7.9%	0.1%	-34.9%
D3: Southwest	$979,250	$1,265,250	6	44	106.4%	-11.3%	4.8%	-14.3%	-31.4%	-9.8%	-72.7%
D4: Twin Peaks	$1,660,000	$2,059,500	18	20	110.4%	-2.4%	11.4%	5.9%	-6.5%	5.7%	-43.8%
D5: Central	$2,580,000	$2,824,357	14	21	103.1%	14.7%	16.6%	-6.7%	41.4%	27.3%	-30.0%
D6: Central North	$2,200,000	$2,241,000	5	42	99.2%	-32.3%	-30.5%	25.0%	-37.6%	-36.4%	400.0%
D7: North	$4,480,000	$9,015,000	5	202	94.6%	-14.7%	76.5%	-28.6%	9.3%	65.8%	-44.4%
D8: Northeast	$3,900,000	$3,530,667	3	73	98.8%	n/a	n/a	n/a	699.2%	623.5%	200.0%
D9: Central East	$1,365,000	$1,731,194	20	23	106.6%	-13.3%	-6.1%	33.3%	-7.5%	8.7%	25.0%
D10: Southeast	$1,126,500	$1,101,724	42	29	111.5%	-6.2%	-6.8%	68.0%	6.4%	-1.6%	10.5%

August Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
	Prices		Unit			Yearly Change			Monthly Change
	Median	Average	Sales	DOM	SP/LP	Median	Average	Sales	Median	Average	Sales
San Francisco	$1,010,000	$1,240,028	183	65	99.1%	-8.7%	0.8%	27.1%	-19.2%	-4.5%	-7.6%
D1: Northwest	$805,000	$1,090,375	8	53	97.7%	-42.1%	-28.6%	0.0%	-40.8%	-22.2%	-20.0%
D2: Central West	$1,157,500	$1,117,500	4	40	108.2%	68.3%	62.5%	100.0%	-4.9%	-3.6%	-33.3%
D3: Southwest	$0	$0	0	0	0.0%	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
D4: Twin Peaks	$567,500	$567,500	2	64	100.1%	6.1%	-2.3%	-50.0%	-14.3%	-20.1%	-50.0%
D5: Central	$1,355,000	$1,407,840	25	47	103.4%	-8.1%	1.4%	0.0%	-11.1%	-9.8%	-16.7%
D6: Central North	$990,750	$1,019,639	18	44	102.1%	-23.8%	-16.2%	5.9%	-27.2%	-21.4%	-14.3%
D7: North	$1,750,000	$1,900,150	20	54	98.0%	25.0%	4.6%	66.7%	8.5%	12.9%	-23.1%
D8: Northeast	$870,000	$1,355,169	41	75	96.1%	-15.7%	22.5%	70.8%	-9.0%	25.3%	24.2%
D9: Central East	$967,500	$1,029,115	58	74	98.9%	13.8%	-9.0%	26.1%	-3.3%	-15.1%	-7.9%
D10: Southeast	$850,000	$827,709	7	119	100.3%	3.9%	5.9%	40.0%	60.4%	90.4%	133.3%

Gathering Data

August 26, 2024 -- With a virtual guarantee of a rate cut coming at the next Fed meeting, the next logical question is "What size will the cut be?" For that, the Fed has made clear that they "will be data dependent but not data point dependent, so it will not be a question of responding specifically to one or two data releases" and that "the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." (emphasis ours)

Still, clues and cues in this regard may be taken from the inbound data. Although there will be another round of CPI, PPI and import and export price changes before the mid-September FOMC get-together, there won't be any fresh update of the Fed's preferred measure of prices, derived from monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures data. The most recent figure the Fed will have to work with was released this week, but covers July, so it lags current conditions by a bit.

Overall PCE prices rose by another 0.2% in July, up a tick from June's figure, but the overall picture didn't change much, as the annualized rate of PCE inflation for the 12 months ended July remained at 2.5% for a second consecutive month. Digging deeper, the so-called "core" PCE price index (the Fed's favored measure as it removes volatile food, energy costs from the calculation) also rose by 0.2% in July, the same as in June, leaving the annualized figure at 2.6% for a third consecutive month. The Fed wants to see core PCE inflation running at a flat 2% rate, so inflation remains a bit above that level and hasn't shown fresh signs of retreating lately.

Mortgage rates were lower in July, but not by much, and existing home prices posted new record highs in June. These aren't the ingredients for a rebound in home sales, and the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index reflects this quite clearly. The PHSI posted a decline of 5.5% in July, and with the decline this measure of signed contract to buy previously-occupied home dropped to the lowest level in its (23-year) history. Mortgage rates dropped materially this month, ending August on a low note, so it's possible that this may loose some homebuyers into the market, but we'll not know this until the end of September at the earliest. That said, we have also passed the typical spring-summer homebuying "season", so it's hard to know how much improvement in sales might be expected.

We do know that lower mortgage rates by themselves are limited in their ability to improve sales, and that even with recent declines, rates are still in the mid-sixes, albeit at about a 16-month low point. Even with that, requests for mortgage credit aren't exactly booming, but the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that overall applications for mortgages rose by 0.5% in the week ending August 23. Requests for funds to purchase homes edged 0.9% higher, while those to refinance existing loans declined by 0.1%. The fresh decline in rates this week may see a few more refinance applications be filed as homeowners can react more quickly than can potential homebuyers.

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