Statistical Tables | | Future Unconfidence
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Mar 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 24 | |
| Home Sales: | 175 | 133 | 162 |
| Median Price: | $1,800,000 | $1,810,449 | $1,725,000 |
| Average Price: | $2,451,139 | $1,600,000 | $2,173,925 |
| SP/LP: | 108.7% | 111.5% | 107.4% |
| Days on Market: | 20 | 24 | 25 |
| (Lofts/Townhomes/TIC) | |||
| Mar 25 | Feb 25 | Mar 24 | |
| Condo Sales: | 226 | 171 | 137 |
| Median Price: | $1,090,000 | $1,337,895 | $1,305,000 |
| Average Price: | $1,316,118 | $1,100,000 | $1,471,513 |
| SP/LP: | 101.5% | 101.5% | 100.9% |
| Days on Market: | 43 | 52 | 48 |
The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 4.3%
year-over-year.
The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 53.2%
month-over-month. Year-over-year, it was up 12.8%.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 8% year-over-year. There were 175
homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.
The median sales price for
condos/lofts
was down 16.5% year-over-year.
The average sales price was down 10.6% year-over-year.
Sales of
condos/lofts
rose 65% year-over-year. There were 226
condos/lofts
sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers
are asking, fell from 111.5% to 108.7% for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes
stayed at 101.5%.
Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it
goes into contract, was 20 for homes and 43 for condos/lofts.
Sales momentum…
for homes fell from +12.2 to +12.1. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 8.6
points to +10.8.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes rose 0.2 of a point to +7. Pricing momentum
for condos/lofts fell 3.2 points to +2.1.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate
monthly and seasonal variations.
If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative
market analysis.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.
| March Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,800,000 | $2,451,139 | 175 | 20 | 108.7% | 4.3% | 12.8% | 8.0% | -0.6% | 53.2% | 31.6% |
| D1: Northwest | $2,285,000 | $2,563,451 | 16 | 49 | 115.2% | 0.5% | -1.3% | -11.1% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 100.0% |
| D2: Central West | $1,600,000 | $1,811,908 | 35 | 13 | 121.7% | 3.2% | 12.1% | 20.7% | -4.8% | 0.2% | 34.6% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,200,000 | $1,380,000 | 9 | 17 | 115.4% | -22.6% | -2.8% | -30.8% | 3.4% | 12.7% | 28.6% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $2,000,000 | $2,063,716 | 25 | 14 | 115.4% | 4.4% | -4.1% | 13.6% | 5.3% | -2.7% | 25.0% |
| D5: Central | $2,968,888 | $3,026,178 | 27 | 19 | 111.9% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 49.7% | 39.8% | 68.8% |
| D6: Central North | $3,500,000 | $3,631,667 | 3 | 15 | 109.6% | -11.4% | -2.8% | 0.0% | 20.7% | 24.1% | 0.0% |
| D7: North | $6,000,000 | $9,024,028 | 9 | 21 | 91.8% | 40.3% | 86.3% | -10.0% | 12.4% | 69.1% | 350.0% |
| D8: Northeast | $4,758,813 | $5,023,156 | 4 | 71 | 97.7% | 266.6% | 148.1% | -20.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| D9: Central East | $1,700,000 | $1,836,531 | 16 | 19 | 111.8% | 0.3% | -4.8% | 23.1% | 37.4% | 50.6% | 100.0% |
| D10: Southeast | $1,200,000 | $1,200,299 | 31 | 30 | 113.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 34.8% | 13.2% | 9.2% | -6.1% |
| March Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,090,000 | $1,316,118 | 226 | 43 | 101.5% | -16.5% | -10.6% | 65.0% | -18.5% | 19.6% | 32.2% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,370,000 | $1,578,636 | 11 | 19 | 105.7% | -0.9% | 13.5% | 175.0% | -13.7% | -1.1% | 57.1% |
| D2: Central West | $1,542,500 | $1,556,667 | 6 | 14 | 104.9% | 7.1% | 19.1% | 20.0% | 33.5% | 34.6% | 100.0% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,305,000 | $1,305,000 | 1 | 15 | 96.7% | 92.5% | 92.5% | -50.0% | 53.5% | 53.5% | 0.0% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $684,950 | $898,317 | 6 | 62 | 98.2% | -16.8% | 27.7% | 100.0% | -27.3% | -4.7% | 200.0% |
| D5: Central | $1,230,000 | $1,266,121 | 33 | 30 | 104.5% | -8.4% | -13.5% | -2.9% | -12.1% | -25.6% | 94.1% |
| D6: Central North | $1,250,000 | $1,210,798 | 21 | 33 | 105.8% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 61.5% | 15.1% | 16.1% | 31.3% |
| D7: North | $1,922,500 | $2,260,583 | 24 | 27 | 102.2% | 13.5% | 27.8% | 33.3% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 9.1% |
| D8: Northeast | $1,360,000 | $1,679,708 | 36 | 46 | 98.3% | 10.8% | 35.1% | 5.9% | 34.7% | 43.7% | 9.1% |
| D9: Central East | $795,000 | $969,829 | 78 | 52 | 99.7% | -18.7% | -15.0% | 18.2% | -10.7% | -17.6% | 20.0% |
| D10: Southeast | $665,000 | $682,089 | 9 | 110 | 99.9% | 38.8% | 15.6% | 50.0% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 80.0% |
March 28, 2025 --
It's hard to find a word to describe a feeling where things seem pretty okay at
the moment -- not great, but okay -- but where the outlook is murky at best.
"Apprehensive" works, but it doesn't feel quite right; "foreboding" feels too
dark, and "uncertainty", well, the future is always uncertain. So "unconfidence"
it is, an awkward word but one that seems to befit what feels like an awkward,
unsettled time.
Among other places, we see this reflected in surveys of consumer moods. The
March update on Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board slumped, as the
headline value fell by 7.2 points to 92.9, its lowest point since January 2021.
However, the underlying components reveal unevenness between assessments of the
present and the future; the "present conditions" component edged lower by just
3.6 points to 134.5, about a six-month low. However, the expectations component
dropped 9.6 points to just 65.2, the lowest it has been in 12 years. Inflation
concerns continue to press higher, and the 6.2% increase expected in prices over
the next year returned to about a two-year high, while plans for buying
high-ticket items remained low.
It's the start of the spring housing season, and too early as yet to know how it
will all turn out. There is at least some reason to think that some homeowners
have become accustomed (resigned?) to mortgage rates in the mid-to-upper sixes
and so have decided to move into the market, and also some signs that somewhat
more folks are putting their homes up for sale, too. To that end, we see that
despite increasing builder blues of late, sales of new homes managed to increase
by 1.8% in February, rising to a 676,000 annual pace. While not much to get
excited about, new home sales have been running roughly at pre-pandemic levels
for a while, most likely due to solid availability and prices very competitive
against the existing home market. In February, there were 9 months of supply of
new homes available at the present rate of sale, some 500,000 units of supply,
the most since November 2007. The median price of a new home sold last month was
$414,500, down from $427,400 in January and about 1.4% lower than a year ago
(not to mention about 10% below October 2022's all-time peak). Contrast this
against what's happened with prices in the existing home market, which seem on
pace for a new record high again this year.
Existing home sales should see a bump in the next month or two, if the 2%
increase in the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales figure for
February proves out. A couple of monthly declines in this measure of signed
contracts that bridged the end of 2024 and early 2025 provided scant indication
that a 4.2% increase in
sales would come in February, but it did. As such, we'll have to wait to see if
this early indicator of an increase home sales bears out come March or April.
As far as mortgage rates go, the influential yields that dictate mortgage
pricing were generally climbing all week, but reversed course on Friday as stock
markets sold off and investors shifted funds to relative safety. That one-day
(so far) rally probably isn't sufficient to keep mortgage rates from rising
modestly next week, when we expect to see a three or four basis point increase
in the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as
reported by Freddie Mac. Since it's the future, this outlook is also tempered by
a bit of unconfidence.
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