Statistical Tables | | In The Range Of Neutral
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Jul 22 | Jun 22 | Jul 21 | |
| Home Sales: | 176 | 230 | 243 |
| Median Price: | $ 1,670,000 | $ 1,850,070 | $ 1,850,000 |
| Average Price: | $ 2,081,708 | $ 2,269,212 | $ 2,284,707 |
| SP/LP: | 108.9% | 114.4% | 113.9% |
| Days on Market: | 20 | 16 | 18 |
| (Lofts/Townhomes/TIC) | |||
| Jul 22 | Jun 22 | Jul 21 | |
| Condo Sales: | 220 | 292 | 352 |
| Median Price: | $ 1,200,000 | $ 1,252,500 | $ 1,192,500 |
| Average Price: | $ 1,475,078 | $ 1,365,157 | $ 1,326,645 |
| SP/LP: | 100.7% | 105.3% | 104.6% |
| Days on Market: | 48 | 38 | 40 |
The median sales price for single-family, re-sale was down 9.7% in July from
June. That’s the fourth month in a row the median price has been lower than the
month before. It was down 9.7% year-over-year.
The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down 8.3%
month-over-month. Year-over-year, it was down 8.9%.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 27.6% year-over-year. Sales were down
23.5% from June. There were 176 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The
average since 2000 is 214.
The median sales price for
condos/lofts
was up 0.6% year-over-year.
The average sales price was up 11.2% year-over-year.
Sales of
condos/lofts
fell 37.5% year-over-year. There were 220
condos/lofts
sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers
are asking, fell from 114.4% to 108.9% for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes
fell from 105.3% to 100.7%.
Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it
goes into contract, was 20 for homes and 48 for condos/lofts.
Sales momentum…
for homes dropped 3.6 points to -7.3. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down
6.4 points to –12.3.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 1.6
points to +6.4. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 0.6 of a point to +2.2.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate
monthly and seasonal variations.
If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative
market analysis.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.
| July Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,670,000 | $2,081,708 | 176 | 20 | 108.9% | -9.7% | -8.9% | -27.6% | -9.7% | -8.3% | -23.5% |
| D1: Northwest | $2,410,000 | $2,300,000 | 13 | 13 | 108.8% | -16.9% | -18.4% | 0.0% | -3.6% | -3.4% | -18.8% |
| D2: Central West | $1,550,000 | $1,717,439 | 41 | 18 | 115.7% | -14.8% | -12.3% | -19.6% | -14.7% | -9.6% | -19.6% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,460,000 | $1,515,867 | 15 | 17 | 114.5% | -8.8% | -11.0% | 7.1% | -4.7% | -6.4% | 50.0% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $1,940,000 | $2,335,524 | 24 | 18 | 107.2% | 1.4% | 13.9% | -14.3% | -9.4% | -1.7% | -29.4% |
| D5: Central | $2,647,500 | $2,756,462 | 26 | 19 | 105.1% | -8.7% | -15.4% | -31.6% | -5.6% | -5.0% | -31.6% |
| D6: Central North | $2,250,000 | $2,250,000 | 1 | 13 | 112.8% | -53.1% | -54.2% | -75.0% | -30.5% | -26.1% | -75.0% |
| D7: North | $7,030,000 | $7,668,700 | 5 | 16 | 106.2% | 75.8% | 74.6% | -66.7% | 10.3% | 40.3% | -37.5% |
| D8: Northeast | $2,015,000 | $2,015,000 | 2 | 26 | 98.5% | -29.3% | -54.0% | -33.3% | -59.7% | -66.1% | -50.0% |
| D9: Central East | $1,820,000 | $2,000,000 | 13 | 23 | 102.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | -56.7% | -4.2% | 2.6% | -38.1% |
| D10: Southeast | $1,200,000 | $1,245,245 | 35 | 26 | 112.2% | 0.0% | 6.2% | -25.5% | -5.9% | -5.5% | -20.5% |
| July Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,200,000 | $1,475,078 | 220 | 48 | 100.7% | 0.6% | 11.2% | -37.5% | -4.2% | 8.1% | -24.7% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,510,000 | $1,574,154 | 13 | 22 | 107.8% | 14.2% | 12.6% | -18.8% | 4.5% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| D2: Central West | $1,400,000 | $1,400,000 | 2 | 29 | 111.2% | 2.0% | 12.4% | -71.4% | -9.7% | -20.5% | -33.3% |
| D3: Southwest | $751,500 | $751,500 | 2 | 23 | 107.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% | -36.3% | -25.6% | -60.0% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $610,000 | $901,667 | 3 | 45 | 101.8% | -31.8% | -13.7% | -40.0% | -32.1% | -14.3% | 0.0% |
| D5: Central | $1,405,000 | $1,428,109 | 32 | 37 | 102.7% | -1.1% | 0.1% | -36.0% | -6.3% | -6.5% | -54.3% |
| D6: Central North | $1,325,000 | $1,304,048 | 21 | 46 | 105.6% | 4.0% | -6.3% | -46.2% | 6.0% | 1.0% | -34.4% |
| D7: North | $1,450,000 | $1,641,140 | 25 | 34 | 99.4% | -7.3% | -6.0% | -37.5% | -14.7% | -6.8% | -7.4% |
| D8: Northeast | $1,075,000 | $2,168,513 | 40 | 51 | 98.6% | 8.9% | 98.8% | -39.4% | 2.4% | 68.3% | -2.4% |
| D9: Central East | $1,165,000 | $1,227,792 | 73 | 65 | 98.9% | 6.6% | -5.6% | -38.1% | 2.2% | -2.7% | -18.9% |
| D10: Southeast | $768,500 | $729,193 | 9 | 38 | 101.4% | -16.0% | -12.6% | 28.6% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 12.5% |
July 29, 2022
-- Amid accumulating signs that the economy has both slowed and is slowing,
the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by another three-quarters of a
percentage point, placing the key monetary policy rate in a range of 2.25% to
2.5%, the highest it has been since July 30, 2019.
The next increase in the federal funds rate -- currently expected to be a
half-point move in September -- will lift the federal funds rate to more than a
14-year high. The Fed is of course trying combat inflation that currently is
running at about a 40-year high, and expects to continue to tighten policy until
it sees clear signs that inflation is likely to sustainably return to the Fed's
speed limit of 2% core PCE.
Settling back and then some is the housing market, as high prices and high
mortgage rates continue to push folks to the sidelines to await more favorable
conditions. The latest evidence of this came in the report covering sales of
newly-built homes, where a 8.1% decline in June to a 590,000 annual rate of
sales was seen. This came on top of a downwardly-revised May figure, where
54,000 homes previously counted were subtracted, leaving May's tally at 642,000.
The 590,000 annual pace for June was barely above the pandemic-shutdown low of
582K, and in reality is more akin to three-and-a-half-year-ago levels than not.
Compared to as recently as December, the annual run rate for sales of new homes
is down by 29%.
With the ongoing slump in sales, inventories of homes built and ready to be sold
continue to balloon; the 457,000 units available in June is the highest level of
inventory since May 2008 and represent a 9.1-month supply at the present rate of
sale. For the month, the median price of a new home sold in June was $402,400,
down 9.5% from May's $444,500. Perhaps this is a case of more supply than demand
shifting some power towards homebuyers who could negotiate lower prices, or
perhaps builders simply trimmed asking prices to help attract buyers and move
stock. It may also be that challenging affordability conditions saw buyers
choosing less costly models with fewer amenities, too.
Existing home sales have been softening for months, and indications are that
this may intensify a bit more yet. The National Association of Realtors Pending
Home Sales Index for June slumped hard, posting an 8.6% decline compared to May.
This measure of contracts signed portends sales 30-60 days down the road and so
will be reflected in July and August sales figures. As well, not all executed
sales contracts make it all the way to the closing table, so the decline in
sales forecast here may ultimately be even more pronounced than what is
suggested by the June PHSI. Leaving out the hard-stop months of the pandemic, by
our reckoning the June PHSI was the lowest reading since September 2011.
Mortgage applications continue to signal flagging activity, too. The Mortgage
Bankers Association reported another 1.2% decline in overall applications for
mortgage credit in the week ending 22, and requests for mortgage funds remain at
about a 22-year low. Purchase-money mortgage applications slipped 0.8%, a fourth
consecutive decline, while those for refinancing dropped another 3.7%. This
week's drop in mortgage rates and the potential for them to hold or decline
somewhat more from current levels may see a touch more refinance activity at
best, but little more than that.
While acknowledging that the fair bit of data due out next week may make markets
a bit restive, we think that the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year
fixed-rate as reported by Freddie Mac is likely to decline again, possibly by
another 10-12 basis points or so.
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