Statistical Tables | | Housing Holding Up

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Aug 21 Jul 21 Aug 20
Home Sales: 245 243 217
Median Price:  $   1,850,000  $   1,850,000  $   1,656,000
Average Price:  $   2,131,989  $   2,284,707  $   2,040,201
SP/LP: 112.7% 113.9% 104.2%
Days on Market: 23 18 24
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Aug 21 Jul 21 Aug 20
Condo Sales: 322 352 236
Median Price:  $   1,150,000  $   1,192,500  $   1,244,500
Average Price:  $   1,323,893  $   1,326,645  $   1,358,295
SP/LP: 104.3% 104.6% 99.9%
Days on Market: 40 40 39

Home Prices Holding Steady

While off the highs reached in June, sales prices of single-family, re-sale homes are higher than the year before.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was flat in August from July. It was up 11.y% year-over-year.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 6.7% month-over-month. Yet, year-over-year it was up 4.5%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose again in August, up 12.9% year-over-year. Sales were up 0.8% from July. There were 245 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

The median sales price for condos/lofts was down 7.6% year-over-year.

The average sales price was down 2.5% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/lofts rose 36.4% year-over-year. There were 322 condos/lofts sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, fell from 113.9% to 112.7 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes fell from 104.6% to 104.3%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 23 for homes and 40 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes dropped a point to +34.1. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 0.5 of a point to +43.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.6 of a point to +7. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 0.5 of a point to –4.8.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

August Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,850,000 $2,131,989 245 23 112.7% 11.7% 4.5% 12.9% 0.0% -6.7% 0.8%
D1: Northwest $2,300,000 $2,865,453 13 14 104.1% 3.2% 26.1% -50.0% -20.7% 1.7% 0.0%
D2: Central West $1,800,000 $1,934,604 51 16 122.3% 17.9% 15.2% 59.4% -1.1% -1.2% 0.0%
D3: Southwest $1,143,000 $1,360,776 19 20 115.4% 3.9% 14.9% 46.2% -28.6% -20.1% 35.7%
D4: Twin Peaks $2,075,000 $2,222,363 41 17 116.2% 14.6% 10.9% 95.2% 8.5% 8.4% 46.4%
D5: Central $2,675,000 $2,978,530 34 23 113.5% 6.5% 5.9% 13.3% -7.8% -8.6% -10.5%
D6: Central North $3,550,000 $3,949,667 3 20 104.5% 21.5% 26.7% -25.0% -26.0% -19.6% -25.0%
D7: North $4,775,000 $4,608,750 8 54 99.0% 13.7% -16.9% -11.1% 19.4% 5.0% -46.7%
D8: Northeast $3,012,500 $2,975,000 4 39 97.7% 31.0% 27.5% 33.3% 5.7% -32.1% 33.3%
D9: Central East $1,925,000 $1,941,160 25 34 108.3% 14.9% 10.5% -24.2% 7.2% -2.6% -16.7%
D10: Southeast $1,284,444 $1,246,345 46 24 115.7% 3.3% 0.5% 2.2% 7.0% 6.3% -2.1%

 

August Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,150,000 $1,323,893 322 40 104.3% -7.6% -2.5% 36.4% -3.6% -0.2% -8.5%
D1: Northwest $1,350,000 $1,494,294 17 20 110.1% -6.9% 10.2% 54.5% 2.1% 6.8% 6.3%
D2: Central West $1,376,000 $1,275,889 9 18 113.2% -7.0% -14.7% 125.0% 0.3% 2.4% 28.6%
D3: Southwest $1,215,000 $1,071,000 5 12 116.5% 1.3% -10.1% 66.7% 71.1% 50.8% 150.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $720,000 $745,600 5 39 105.1% -57.9% -46.6% 66.7% -19.6% -28.7% 0.0%
D5: Central $1,400,000 $1,402,316 51 27 110.5% -6.5% -5.0% 2.0% -1.4% -1.7% 2.0%
D6: Central North $1,202,500 $1,232,715 28 44 105.6% -2.0% -16.6% 33.3% -5.6% -11.4% -28.2%
D7: North $1,850,000 $1,998,873 31 33 102.4% 25.3% 13.3% -8.8% 18.2% 14.5% -22.5%
D8: Northeast $940,000 $1,157,144 59 48 100.0% 2.7% 27.4% 96.7% -4.8% 6.1% -10.6%
D9: Central East $1,105,000 $1,264,165 109 50 102.2% -4.9% -1.0% 51.4% 1.1% -2.8% -7.6%
D10: Southeast $767,500 $782,500 8 33 101.5% 4.1% 11.5% 33.3% -16.1% -6.3% 14.3%

 

Housing Holding Up

August 27, 2021 -- The housing market continued to power along into July, eking out modest gains in what seemed like an extended spring homebuying season this year. The open question is whether the solid activity can be maintained as we move forward, as the challenges facing homebuyers continue to mount.

Sales of existing homes leapt strongly into late last year, running at a pace as strong as an annualized 6.73 million units sold last October. Since then, more headwinds have formed, chief among them very limited supply of homes available to buy. This spring, the lack of houses to buy damped the pace of sales to a more moderate (though still strong) level during the normally most active portion of the year for home buying. Surging demand but no supply expressed itself in classic fashion, with homes coming onto the market selling in very short order and at prices that are increasing at unheard-of rates.

That situation hasn't much improved, and price increases are running at levels that are far outstripping income gains with little end in sight. Affordability is starting to pinch, at least for homebuyers on the margins, where high and still rising prices are both rapidly increasing the funds needed for a down payment and lifting the monthly carry cost of owning a home.

In July, sales of existing homes managed a 2% increase over June, with sales rising to a 5.99 million annual pace. The National Association of Realtors also noted that the supply of homes managed to improve a little bit, too, rising to 2.6 months of supply at the present rate of sale, up from 2.5 months in June. Compared to last year, the median price of a home sold was "only" 17.8% higher, a relative improvement over May and June's 23%+ comparative increases. That said, the median price of a home sold last month was $359,900, down just a little from June's all-time record. When they do come on to market, homes are still flying off the shelves, with the median time from listing to sale holding at 17 days for a third month, suggesting there is still plenty of demand to be sated.

Sales of new homes also downshifted during the spring selling season. After posting an annualized 993,000 sales rate in January, sales throttled back to just 701,000 annual in June, but managed a 1% increase in July, breaking a three-month string of declines. New homes aren't suffering from supply issues per se, inventory levels for new stock increased to 6.2 months of supply at the present rate of sale, with an actual 367,000 units ready to be sold, the highest monthly figure since November 2008. For new homes, it's more about cost (median price of $390,500 last month) and location, since large housing developments often happen far from city centers, often necessitating long commutes. That wasn't a problem last year when the pandemic led to a lot of work-from-anywhere opportunities (and still is) but with many businesses planning to eventually return to offices it has again become a consideration for many.

For their part in all this, mortgage rates have been very well behaved, even if they are generally higher than they were to start 2021. Eventually, higher mortgage rates will also add to the cost troubles for buyers; this might actually be a good thing, as it would help temper demand, allowing inventories of homes for sale to increase, which in turn would help to damp outsized price increases. At some point, either still-higher prices or higher mortgage rates will damp demand, but which will push the market to the tipping point first (or when) is still not clear.

Housing continues to have solid demographic tailwinds behind it but also the benefit of a strong (if uneven) economy, one goosed by all manner of monetary policy and fiscal supports and stimulus. In the second quarter of 2021, Gross Domestic Product expanded at a 6.6% annual rate, up from the first quarter and an upward revision from the preliminary estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. As most already know, price pressures were elevated during the period, with the overall Personal Consumption Expenditure price index up by 6.5% overall and 6.1% at the core, about a 40-year high and well above the Fed's desired levels. In a speech at an economic symposium in Jackson Hole (WY) on Friday, Fed Chair Powell said that in his judgement that the "substantial further progress" test has been met for inflation, and that the Fed believes that "the outlook is for continued progress toward maximum employment." This suggests that we'll see a plan for tapering of asset purchases soon, probably at the FOMC meeting next month.