Statistical Tables | | In The Range Of Neutral

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jul 22 Jun 22 Jul 21
Home Sales: 176 230 243
Median Price:  $   1,670,000  $   1,850,070  $   1,850,000
Average Price:  $   2,081,708  $   2,269,212  $   2,284,707
SP/LP: 108.9% 114.4% 113.9%
Days on Market: 20 16 18
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Jul 22 Jun 22 Jul 21
Condo Sales: 220 292 352
Median Price:  $   1,200,000  $   1,252,500  $   1,192,500
Average Price:  $   1,475,078  $   1,365,157  $   1,326,645
SP/LP: 100.7% 105.3% 104.6%
Days on Market: 48 38 40

Market Continues to Slow

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale was down 9.7% in July from June. That’s the fourth month in a row the median price has been lower than the month before. It was down 9.7% year-over-year.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down 8.3% month-over-month. Year-over-year, it was down 8.9%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 27.6% year-over-year. Sales were down 23.5% from June. There were 176 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

The median sales price for condos/lofts was up 0.6% year-over-year.

The average sales price was up 11.2% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/lofts fell 37.5% year-over-year. There were 220 condos/lofts sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, fell from 114.4% to 108.9% for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes fell from 105.3% to 100.7%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 20 for homes and 48 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for homes dropped 3.6 points to -7.3. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 6.4 points to –12.3.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 1.6 points to +6.4. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 0.6 of a point to +2.2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis. 

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

July Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,670,000 $2,081,708 176 20 108.9% -9.7% -8.9% -27.6% -9.7% -8.3% -23.5%
D1: Northwest $2,410,000 $2,300,000 13 13 108.8% -16.9% -18.4% 0.0% -3.6% -3.4% -18.8%
D2: Central West $1,550,000 $1,717,439 41 18 115.7% -14.8% -12.3% -19.6% -14.7% -9.6% -19.6%
D3: Southwest $1,460,000 $1,515,867 15 17 114.5% -8.8% -11.0% 7.1% -4.7% -6.4% 50.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,940,000 $2,335,524 24 18 107.2% 1.4% 13.9% -14.3% -9.4% -1.7% -29.4%
D5: Central $2,647,500 $2,756,462 26 19 105.1% -8.7% -15.4% -31.6% -5.6% -5.0% -31.6%
D6: Central North $2,250,000 $2,250,000 1 13 112.8% -53.1% -54.2% -75.0% -30.5% -26.1% -75.0%
D7: North $7,030,000 $7,668,700 5 16 106.2% 75.8% 74.6% -66.7% 10.3% 40.3% -37.5%
D8: Northeast $2,015,000 $2,015,000 2 26 98.5% -29.3% -54.0% -33.3% -59.7% -66.1% -50.0%
D9: Central East $1,820,000 $2,000,000 13 23 102.7% 1.4% 0.4% -56.7% -4.2% 2.6% -38.1%
D10: Southeast $1,200,000 $1,245,245 35 26 112.2% 0.0% 6.2% -25.5% -5.9% -5.5% -20.5%

 

July Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,200,000 $1,475,078 220 48 100.7% 0.6% 11.2% -37.5% -4.2% 8.1% -24.7%
D1: Northwest $1,510,000 $1,574,154 13 22 107.8% 14.2% 12.6% -18.8% 4.5% 20.4% 0.0%
D2: Central West $1,400,000 $1,400,000 2 29 111.2% 2.0% 12.4% -71.4% -9.7% -20.5% -33.3%
D3: Southwest $751,500 $751,500 2 23 107.5% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% -36.3% -25.6% -60.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $610,000 $901,667 3 45 101.8% -31.8% -13.7% -40.0% -32.1% -14.3% 0.0%
D5: Central $1,405,000 $1,428,109 32 37 102.7% -1.1% 0.1% -36.0% -6.3% -6.5% -54.3%
D6: Central North $1,325,000 $1,304,048 21 46 105.6% 4.0% -6.3% -46.2% 6.0% 1.0% -34.4%
D7: North $1,450,000 $1,641,140 25 34 99.4% -7.3% -6.0% -37.5% -14.7% -6.8% -7.4%
D8: Northeast $1,075,000 $2,168,513 40 51 98.6% 8.9% 98.8% -39.4% 2.4% 68.3% -2.4%
D9: Central East $1,165,000 $1,227,792 73 65 98.9% 6.6% -5.6% -38.1% 2.2% -2.7% -18.9%
D10: Southeast $768,500 $729,193 9 38 101.4% -16.0% -12.6% 28.6% 11.8% 1.9% 12.5%

 

In The Range Of Neutral

July 29, 2022 -- Amid accumulating signs that the economy has both slowed and is slowing, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by another three-quarters of a percentage point, placing the key monetary policy rate in a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, the highest it has been since July 30, 2019.

The next increase in the federal funds rate -- currently expected to be a half-point move in September -- will lift the federal funds rate to more than a 14-year high. The Fed is of course trying combat inflation that currently is running at about a 40-year high, and expects to continue to tighten policy until it sees clear signs that inflation is likely to sustainably return to the Fed's speed limit of 2% core PCE.

Settling back and then some is the housing market, as high prices and high mortgage rates continue to push folks to the sidelines to await more favorable conditions. The latest evidence of this came in the report covering sales of newly-built homes, where a 8.1% decline in June to a 590,000 annual rate of sales was seen. This came on top of a downwardly-revised May figure, where 54,000 homes previously counted were subtracted, leaving May's tally at 642,000. The 590,000 annual pace for June was barely above the pandemic-shutdown low of 582K, and in reality is more akin to three-and-a-half-year-ago levels than not. Compared to as recently as December, the annual run rate for sales of new homes is down by 29%.

With the ongoing slump in sales, inventories of homes built and ready to be sold continue to balloon; the 457,000 units available in June is the highest level of inventory since May 2008 and represent a 9.1-month supply at the present rate of sale. For the month, the median price of a new home sold in June was $402,400, down 9.5% from May's $444,500. Perhaps this is a case of more supply than demand shifting some power towards homebuyers who could negotiate lower prices, or perhaps builders simply trimmed asking prices to help attract buyers and move stock. It may also be that challenging affordability conditions saw buyers choosing less costly models with fewer amenities, too.

Existing home sales have been softening for months, and indications are that this may intensify a bit more yet. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index for June slumped hard, posting an 8.6% decline compared to May. This measure of contracts signed portends sales 30-60 days down the road and so will be reflected in July and August sales figures. As well, not all executed sales contracts make it all the way to the closing table, so the decline in sales forecast here may ultimately be even more pronounced than what is suggested by the June PHSI. Leaving out the hard-stop months of the pandemic, by our reckoning the June PHSI was the lowest reading since September 2011.

Mortgage applications continue to signal flagging activity, too. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported another 1.2% decline in overall applications for mortgage credit in the week ending 22, and requests for mortgage funds remain at about a 22-year low. Purchase-money mortgage applications slipped 0.8%, a fourth consecutive decline, while those for refinancing dropped another 3.7%. This week's drop in mortgage rates and the potential for them to hold or decline somewhat more from current levels may see a touch more refinance activity at best, but little more than that.

While acknowledging that the fair bit of data due out next week may make markets a bit restive, we think that the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate as reported by Freddie Mac is likely to decline again, possibly by another 10-12 basis points or so.