Statistical Tables | | Housing: Not So Fast
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| May 21 | Apr 21 | May 20 | |
| Home Sales: | 248 | 274 | 105 |
| Median Price: | $ 1,892,500 | $ 1,800,000 | $ 1,630,000 |
| Average Price: | $ 2,432,058 | $ 2,443,656 | $ 1,911,728 |
| SP/LP: | 112.6% | 108.4% | 104.0% |
| Days on Market: | 19 | 20 | 24 |
| (Lofts/Townhomes/TIC) | |||
| May 21 | Apr 21 | May 20 | |
| Condo Sales: | 418 | 421 | 109 |
| Median Price: | $ 1,226,000 | $ 1,200,000 | $ 1,100,222 |
| Average Price: | $ 1,361,705 | $ 1,330,051 | $ 1,289,927 |
| SP/LP: | 105.3% | 103.6% | 98.7% |
| Days on Market: | 37 | 44 | 39 |
The median sales price for
single-family, re-sale homes set a new high of $1,892,500 in May. It rose 16.1%
year-over-year.
The average sales price for
single-family, re-sale homes rose 27.2% year-over-year.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose again in
May, jumping 136.2% year-over-year. Sales were down 9.5% from April. There were
248 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.
The median sales price for
condos/lofts
was up 11.4%
year-over-year.
The average sales price was up
5.6% year-over-year.
Sales of
condos/lofts
rose 283.5% year-over-year. There were 418
condos/lofts sold last
month. The average since 2000 is 230.
The sales price to list price
ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, rose from 108.4%
to 112.6 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes rose from 103.6% to 105.3%.
Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 19 for homes and 37 for condos/lofts.
for homes rose 9 points to +30.1. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 12.5 points to +35.2.
for single-family homes rose 1.5 points to +5.5. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 2 points to –4.5.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.
| May Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,892,500 | $2,432,058 | 248 | 19 | 112.6% | 16.1% | 27.2% | 136.2% | 5.1% | -0.5% | -9.5% |
| D1: Northwest | $2,450,000 | $2,537,692 | 13 | 0 | 133.6% | 44.2% | 16.0% | 44.4% | -1.3% | 11.4% | -13.3% |
| D2: Central West | $829,444 | $833,689 | 10 | 24 | 105.1% | -41.8% | -41.9% | -61.5% | -49.8% | -52.0% | -81.5% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,725,000 | $1,725,000 | 2 | 21 | 112.0% | 29.2% | 29.7% | -75.0% | 24.3% | 18.1% | -88.9% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $1,230,000 | $1,073,600 | 5 | 55 | 113.5% | -38.2% | -53.1% | -64.3% | -47.8% | -56.5% | -86.1% |
| D5: Central | $2,885,000 | $3,129,625 | 40 | 24 | 106.1% | 31.9% | 25.2% | 122.2% | 13.8% | 3.7% | -11.1% |
| D6: Central North | $2,310,000 | $3,300,834 | 3 | 49 | 103.4% | -38.4% | -1.0% | 0.0% | -12.5% | 12.3% | -50.0% |
| D7: North | $5,610,000 | $7,375,929 | 14 | 24 | 104.9% | 18.1% | 55.3% | 1300.0% | -4.9% | -1.6% | -26.3% |
| D8: Northeast | $5,206,106 | $5,206,106 | 2 | 53 | 106.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 147.9% | 119.5% | -33.3% |
| D9: Central East | $1,750,000 | $1,904,034 | 29 | 35 | 106.2% | -2.5% | -3.6% | 141.7% | 4.1% | -7.6% | -17.1% |
| D10: Southeast | $1,382,000 | $1,393,895 | 19 | 21 | 112.7% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 100.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 2.4% |
| May Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,226,000 | $1,361,705 | 418 | 37 | 105.3% | 11.4% | 5.6% | 283.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | -0.7% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,382,000 | $1,393,895 | 19 | 21 | 112.7% | 51.0% | 50.3% | 171.4% | -0.8% | -7.2% | -5.0% |
| D2: Central West | $1,725,000 | $1,725,000 | 2 | 21 | 112.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 56.8% | 38.7% | -71.4% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,230,000 | $1,073,600 | 5 | 55 | 113.5% | 49.1% | 30.1% | 400.0% | -8.9% | -19.1% | -28.6% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $732,500 | $947,357 | 7 | 38 | 102.7% | -36.4% | -10.6% | 133.3% | -25.2% | -0.2% | 75.0% |
| D5: Central | $1,545,000 | $1,542,979 | 69 | 18 | 112.2% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 187.5% | 14.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% |
| D6: Central North | $1,299,000 | $1,287,715 | 29 | 29 | 109.0% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 163.6% | 9.2% | 1.3% | -27.5% |
| D7: North | $1,749,000 | $2,052,810 | 50 | 25 | 104.3% | 17.4% | 40.7% | 257.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| D8: Northeast | $998,000 | $1,185,617 | 81 | 54 | 101.0% | -22.0% | -33.4% | 523.1% | -9.3% | -5.1% | 20.9% |
| D9: Central East | $1,013,000 | $1,208,475 | 146 | 46 | 102.5% | 10.1% | 20.2% | 403.4% | -9.7% | 1.1% | -5.2% |
| D10: Southeast | $829,444 | $833,689 | 10 | 24 | 105.1% | -7.7% | -8.1% | 60.0% | -5.1% | -22.0% | -38.5% |
May 28, 2021
-- The increasingly unfavorable conditions facing housing markets are starting
to have the expected effects: sales of new and existing houses are slowing down.
Softening sales aren't a result of a lack of demand, at least for the most part,
but rather a lack of supply, and most especially, a lack of supply that is
desirable and affordable to wide swaths of the homebuying audience.
We learned last week that sales of existing homes throttled back for a third
consecutive month, falling another 2.7% in April. Actually, sales have been flat
to falling now for about six months after hitting a recovery high of 6.73
million units at an annualized rate of sale last October; April's 5.85 million
rate was about 13% below that mark. The culprit(s) for tempering sales? Some
would blame firmer mortgage rates, but they are only running perhaps a third of
a percentage point above all-time bottoms, so that's not really the issue.
However, home prices rising by double-digits compared to a year ago -- and at
nearly a 20% year-over-year clip in April -- is enough to put some buyers on the
sidelines.
Perhaps the greatest issue is that there aren't many homes even to look at on
the market, let alone purchase, as "for sale" inventories of existing homes
remain razor thin (if improved somewhat from the tightest levels of the winter).
Just 2.4 months of homes for sale at the present sales pace were available in
April and potential buyers face bidding wars, cash competition and need to make
near-instant decisions whether to buy or not just to have a chance to buy. In
addition, there's little time to even consider options, since listings are
coming off the market in an average of slightly more than two weeks' time.
After some weeks or months of trying and having no success, some potential
homebuyers simply become discouraged and step back from the market, hoping for
more favorable conditions to emerge.
In some markets, new construction can help pick up the slack for a lack of
existing homes to buy, but not everywhere. Locations where new homes can be
built more than one at a time are often a greater distance from city centers,
amenities and job markets. Work-from-home opportunities have attenuated the last
issue to a degree, but only to a degree, and with pandemic restrictions fading
and more companies talking about a return to the office, the waters are a little
muddy when it comes to potential future commuting. This changing climate may
give some buyers who might consider a brand-new home pause.
But the new construction market is now starting to suffer from surging prices,
too. Rising costs for lumber and other materials is inflating the cost of a new
home, and supplies of labor and fixtures and more remain an issue due to the
effects of the pandemic 9and perhaps those stemming from attempts to ameliorate
the effects of the pandemic, too). As recently as March, the median cost of a
brand-new house ($334,200) was nearly the same as that for an existing home
($326,300), and prices for new stock were in a comparatively flat pattern
relative to existing home prices.
That's no longer the case, with new home prices shooting up by 11.4% on a
month-to-month basis ($372,400) and about 20% higher than they were last April.
Pandemic effects play a role to a degree in the size of the annual jump, but
just a little. So with prices leaping for new homes almost as fast as existing,
it's reasonable to expect sales to temper, and they did, falling 5.9% to an
863,000 annual rate of sale. Unlike the existing market, homes available to buy
aren't much of an issue, as there reasonable levels of inventory available --
about 4.4 months at the present sales pace -- with the 316,000 units available
the highest number in a year's time.
Where existing home sales reflect demand anywhere from a month or two prior to
the month in which they are reported (e.g. April's sales reflect demand in
February and March), sales of new homes are recorded in the month when the
contract is signed, so demand for new homes cooled in April. The National
Association of Realtors has a similar as-contracted tally for existing homes
called the Pending Home Sales Index; April's 4.4% decline in the PHSI to a level
last seen a year ago in May suggests that sales of existing homes will likely be
sluggish in May and June. Often, once the "spring homebuying season" passes,
home sales tend to tail off a bit for the summer, but more likely this year is
that they'll only flatten out a bit more from where we are at the moment. Even
if they should, there's really nothing especially concerning about home sales in
the 5.5 million or so range, even if this number is considerably lower than it
could be in more favorable inventory and price conditions.
So even as the rest of the economy comes up to full (or fuller) recovery speed,
the housing market may not be able to produce much by way of gains, but 2021
will turn out to be a very solid year even if it can only hold present levels.
While there's no immediate indication that the Fed will be making any moves
anytime soon, the more time moves forward, the closer to the day we get when
they will start making changes. As we approach this shift (whenever it may be)
this at least for a time will produce higher interest rates, and that may temper
sales a bit more.
So housing markets are settling after a strong set of gains. Odds favor that
sales will pick up again once inventory levels improve (existing) or lumber and
materials inflation subside (new construction) and home price increases throttle
back again. It would be better if these things happened sooner than later,
because later at some point will come with higher mortgage rates, although they
won't be high enough (perhaps a 4% level or higher) to do any kind of real
damage to demand for an extended period yet.
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