Statistical Tables | | Price Plateau
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Jan 25 | Dec 24 | Jan 24 | |
| Home Sales: | 111 | 125 | 84 |
| Median Price: | $1,400,000 | $1,530,000 | $1,552,500 |
| Average Price: | $1,979,217 | $1,759,892 | $2,278,347 |
| SP/LP: | 102.7% | 107.3% | 100.4% |
| Days on Market: | 46 | 33 | 55 |
| (Lofts/Townhomes/TIC) | |||
| Jan 25 | Dec 24 | Jan 24 | |
| Condo Sales: | 122 | 162 | 110 |
| Median Price: | $932,500 | $1,045,500 | $1,087,500 |
| Average Price: | $1,204,634 | $1,286,435 | $1,431,064 |
| SP/LP: | 98.2% | 97.4% | 93.9% |
| Days on Market: | 86 | 74 | 83 |
The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 8.5% in January
from December. It was down 9.8% year-over-year.
The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 12.5%
month-over-month. Year-over-year, it was down 13.1%.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 32.1% year-over-year. There were 111
homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.
The median sales price for
condos/lofts
was down 14.3% year-over-year.
The average sales price was down 15.8% year-over-year.
Sales of
condos/lofts
rose 10.9% year-over-year. There were 122
condos/lofts
sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers
are asking, fell from 107.3% to 102.7% for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes
rose from 97.4% to 98.2%.
Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it
goes into contract, was 46 for homes and 86 for condos/lofts.
Sales momentum…
for homes rose from +12 to +13.6. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 0.1
of a point to +3.1.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 1.8 points to +3.3.
Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 1.9 points to +0.7.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate
monthly and seasonal variations.
If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative
market analysis.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.
| January Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,400,000 | $1,979,217 | 111 | 46 | 102.7% | -9.8% | -13.1% | 32.1% | -8.5% | 12.5% | -11.2% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,825,000 | $5,006,600 | 5 | 100 | 94.3% | 6.9% | 65.2% | -58.3% | 1.2% | 139.8% | -37.5% |
| D2: Central West | $1,707,500 | $1,779,109 | 18 | 30 | 109.5% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 50.0% | 8.1% | 12.0% | -18.2% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,150,000 | $1,118,786 | 7 | 22 | 115.1% | 4.5% | -9.0% | -22.2% | -18.6% | -21.1% | 16.7% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $1,890,000 | $1,797,500 | 10 | 50 | 102.7% | -1.8% | -10.4% | -23.1% | 18.1% | 6.6% | -47.4% |
| D5: Central | $2,576,000 | $2,859,623 | 13 | 42 | 103.7% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 62.5% | 10.0% | 14.9% | -7.1% |
| D6: Central North | $2,375,000 | $2,463,333 | 3 | 68 | 91.9% | -34.3% | -31.9% | 200.0% | 83.4% | 90.2% | 200.0% |
| D7: North | $5,650,000 | $6,550,000 | 4 | 189 | 96.2% | 7.4% | 11.5% | -50.0% | 16.5% | 30.5% | -20.0% |
| D8: Northeast | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | 1 | 6 | 103.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | -9.1% | -67.3% | -66.7% |
| D9: Central East | $1,506,250 | $1,623,120 | 20 | 48 | 104.4% | -2.5% | -7.1% | 233.3% | -3.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| D10: Southeast | $1,000,000 | $1,020,072 | 30 | 40 | 106.7% | -4.8% | -5.7% | 100.0% | -6.1% | -9.1% | -21.1% |
| January Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $932,500 | $1,204,634 | 122 | 86 | 98.2% | -14.3% | -15.8% | 10.9% | -10.8% | -6.4% | -24.7% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,695,000 | $1,593,333 | 3 | 32 | 109.1% | 41.3% | 9.0% | -40.0% | 21.1% | 24.1% | -40.0% |
| D2: Central West | $1,045,000 | $1,060,000 | 3 | 78 | 98.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | -43.0% | -42.2% | 50.0% |
| D3: Southwest | $612,500 | $612,500 | 2 | 7 | 101.0% | -57.8% | -57.8% | 100.0% | 15.6% | -17.4% | -33.3% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $0 | $0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| D5: Central | $999,000 | $1,160,456 | 13 | 60 | 102.4% | -15.3% | -5.7% | 0.0% | -25.3% | -10.6% | -45.8% |
| D6: Central North | $922,500 | $1,036,425 | 10 | 78 | 96.7% | 8.8% | -1.6% | 0.0% | -22.0% | -10.7% | -16.7% |
| D7: North | $1,637,500 | $2,076,667 | 12 | 40 | 97.7% | -6.3% | -29.1% | -25.0% | 21.3% | 38.8% | -36.8% |
| D8: Northeast | $847,500 | $1,048,757 | 28 | 109 | 96.5% | 3.4% | -0.9% | -15.2% | -8.4% | -16.0% | -9.7% |
| D9: Central East | $847,500 | $1,184,804 | 46 | 104 | 97.8% | -16.9% | -6.0% | 48.4% | -10.8% | -15.4% | -13.2% |
| D10: Southeast | $770,000 | $708,800 | 5 | 61 | 97.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 4.1% | -5.5% | -54.5% |
January 31, 2025 --
The Federal Reserve held a policy-setting meeting this week, ultimately deciding
to take no action and leaving the federal funds rate unchanged. There was little
new insight into the Fed's thinking in either the statement that closed the
meeting or in Chairman Powell's post-meeting press conference.
In his prepared remarks, Mr. Powell noted "significant progress" made toward the
Fed's two goals of full employment and price stability over the last two years,
while acknowledging that inflation "remains somewhat elevated." While it is true
that progress has been made toward those goals, it is also true that there
really hasn't been much progress made in some time. Given pandemic distortion,
it's difficult to compare the labor market two years ago to today; certainly,
millions more people are on payrolls. However, the unemployment rate of late is
currently higher than those days, too, running at 4.1% now as compared to 3.5%
then.
The improvement in inflation is easier to see; two years ago, headline PCE
prices were running at a 5% annual rate, and core PCE at 4.4%, and steadily
declining. Currently, those figures are 2.6% and 2.8%, and firming or firm.
Annualized PCE inflation has risen by a half percentage point since September,
so there's certainly no progress at all to be seen here. As well, annualized
core PCE has held at the present level for the past three months, and is little
better than it was last April, so there is no recent evidence of progress in
getting inflation down to target levels. Given this, it's reasonable to think
that the rate cut in December (and perhaps November as well) were perhaps less
than optimally timed.
Sales of newly-constructed homes posted a 3.6% increase in December, landing at
a 698.000 annual rate. This was a better showing than was expected, and
November's initial estimate was revised higher by 10,000 units, too. The
end-of-year improvement came despite high mortgage rates, as consumers seem to
be drawn in by ample inventory of homes available to buy and builder incentives
such as price reductions and financing support. The supply of new homes at the
present rate of sales edged down to 8.5 months; the actual (annualized) number
of units ready to be sold was 494,000, the highest figure since December 2007,
some 18 years ago and just before the financial crisis and Great Recession fully
upended the housing market.
That's not to say the housing market isn't still upended in some ways; it is,
but for different reasons now, like record high existing home prices and
generationally-high mortgage rates. Both those items (plus the effect of
holidays) damped the number of home purchase contracts signed in December. The
trio of conditions resulted in the Pending Home Sales Index from the National
Association of Realtors record a 5.5% decline to close 2024, its first retreat
since July. Since it can take 30-60 days for a signed contract to turn into a
sale, we'd expect to see the impact of the decline in PHSI reflected mostly in
February's sales figures. Reckoning off the 4.24 million pace for December, this
would see existing home sales drop back to about the 4.00 million level by then.
With mortgage rates high and fairly steady it's not likely we'll see any kind of
sudden change in the number of folks applying for mortgages. The Mortgage
Bankers Association reported that there was a 2% decline in the number of
requests for mortgage credit in the week ending January 24. Applications for
funds to purchase homes eased by 0.4% for the week, while those to refinance
existing mortgages dropped 6.8%. To get much by way of improvement in demand for
loans, we'll likely need to see mortgage rates drop back to perhaps 6.5% or so,
if not lower.
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