Statistical Tables | | Rates Firm Further

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Oct 21 Sep 21 Oct 20
Home Sales: 303 238 287
Median Price:  $   1,810,000  $   1,750,000  $   1,625,555
Average Price:  $   2,358,448  $   2,118,465  $   1,939,321
SP/LP: 112.6% 113.7% 105.4%
Days on Market: 19 22 26
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Oct 21 Sep 21 Oct 20
Condo Sales: 347 281 290
Median Price:  $   1,250,000  $   1,200,000  $   1,156,250
Average Price:  $   1,469,110  $   1,343,298  $   1,261,814
SP/LP: 104.8% 105.0% 100.6%
Days on Market: 34 37 41

Sales & Prices Up in October

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 5.6% year-over-year. Sales were up 27.3% from September. There were 303 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

While off the highs reached in June, sales prices of single-family, re-sale homes are higher than the year before.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 3.4% in October from September. It was up 11.3% year-over-year.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 11.3% month-over-month. Year-over-year it was up 21.6%.

The median sales price for condos/lofts was up 8.1% year-over-year.

The average sales price was up 16.4% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/lofts rose 19.7% year-over-year. There were 347 condos/lofts sold last month. The average since 2000 is 230.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, fell from 113.7% to 112.6 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes fell from 105% to 104.8%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 19 for homes and 34 for condos/lofts. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes dropped 0.6 of a point to +29.4. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 0.2 of a point to +39.6.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.9 of a point to +7.9. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 1.8 points to –2.1.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

October Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,810,000 $2,358,448 303 19 112.6% 11.3% 21.6% 5.6% 3.4% 11.3% 27.3%
D1: Northwest $2,300,000 $2,399,098 31 12 166.5% 15.0% 7.9% 24.0% -14.5% -23.4% 29.2%
D2: Central West $1,720,000 $1,880,591 63 15 124.9% 10.3% 13.8% 8.6% 3.5% 1.6% 37.0%
D3: Southwest $1,405,000 $1,576,381 21 19 115.6% 7.7% 20.3% 5.0% 0.4% 3.1% 23.5%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,910,000 $2,304,170 45 13 118.5% 9.1% 22.6% 12.5% 6.3% 14.1% 60.7%
D5: Central $2,612,500 $2,875,282 36 23 112.7% 4.0% 7.8% 0.0% -11.4% 1.1% 0.0%
D6: Central North $1,515,000 $2,022,667 3 69 103.8% -54.8% -37.7% -66.7% -25.8% -1.0% 50.0%
D7: North $7,000,000 $8,271,421 14 14 103.0% 27.3% 36.9% 100.0% 12.4% 31.9% 133.3%
D8: Northeast $3,750,000 $4,396,800 5 35 98.4% n/a n/a n/a 12.4% 31.8% 150.0%
D9: Central East $2,050,000 $2,248,221 34 19 110.0% 8.6% 17.9% -2.9% 10.4% 15.3% 47.8%
D10: Southeast $1,230,000 $1,199,845 50 25 114.8% 11.8% 8.9% -5.7% 3.3% -1.6% -7.4%

 

October Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,250,000 $1,469,110 347 34 104.8% 8.1% 16.4% 19.7% 4.2% 9.4% 23.5%
D1: Northwest $1,450,000 $1,670,067 15 28 105.6% 4.4% 13.8% -34.8% 18.4% 30.0% 25.0%
D2: Central West $1,183,000 $1,295,600 5 29 112.8% 14.4% 11.7% -50.0% 10.6% 19.6% 66.7%
D3: Southwest $898,000 $913,000 3 34 101.5% 28.9% 26.2% -25.0% 22.2% 24.2% 50.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $860,000 $1,021,429 7 17 107.6% 6.8% 11.5% 75.0% 43.6% 26.4% 133.3%
D5: Central $1,400,000 $1,445,449 52 18 110.8% 5.7% 3.3% 4.0% -8.2% -11.3% -1.9%
D6: Central North $1,325,000 $1,369,054 45 27 107.9% 25.6% 17.7% 21.6% 4.3% -4.6% 36.4%
D7: North $1,725,000 $2,153,209 37 36 102.5% 25.0% 35.6% 12.1% 23.2% 16.6% 48.0%
D8: Northeast $998,000 $1,434,280 73 36 103.1% -2.2% 24.4% 97.3% -3.8% 16.1% 58.7%
D9: Central East $1,467,500 $1,753,273 60 42 102.2% 46.8% 53.4% -40.0% 43.2% 49.7% -36.8%
D10: Southeast $850,000 $859,570 6 21 104.1% 9.0% 14.3% -14.3% 7.3% 9.3% -25.0%

 

Rates Firm Further

October 29, 2021 -- The Fed has its next meeting slated for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, and it's a pretty reasonable certainty that plans for tapering purchases of Treasury bonds and Mortgage-Backed Securities will be laid out. It is very likely they will start immediately, or pretty close to it, with purchases of Treasuries pared by $10 billion per month and MBS by $5 billion per month in each of the next eight months, terminating by next July.

Along with growing prospects for a faster pace of interest rate increases following the end of the QE-style program, investors have spent the six weeks from the September meeting adjusting their positions to account for the changing landscape. During this time, and coupled with a rather warm spell for inflation, interest rates in general and mortgage rates in specific have moved upward. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates are currently just a shadow below 2021 highs.

That said, it appears as though the adjustment process is over for now, and there appears to be some settling in interest rates presently. This may be the result of less-strong news about the U.S. economy in the third quarter, or may also be a result of central bank policy changes, all of which will tend to help slow growth (at least at the margins, and over time) in turn possibly helping to temper flaring prices.

With mortgage rate firing a bit over the last five or six weeks, you would expect that this would have homebuyers that can jump off the fence and into the market, and that seems to be the case. Sales of new homes in September rose by 14% to an 800,000 annual rate, the strongest since about April. At the current pace, there are about 5.7 months of supply of new homes available, a fairly normal figure, and the 370,000 actual units ready for buyers was unchanged from August. The median price of a new home sold last month edged lower, falling 1.9% to $408,000, but affordability is still being supported by low mortgage rates and a growing economy.

The new construction market is much smaller than the one for existing homes, and we may be starting to see some seasonal slowing starting to show after a pretty solid summer. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index (a measure of signed purchase contracts) slipped back by 2.3% in September (and is about 8% below year-ago levels). After the surprise 7% jump in existing home sales for September -- reflective of demand from July or so -- it looks like the 6.29 million pace will drop back toward the 6 million mark for October, or back to where it has roughly been for many months in 2021.

The slightly rising mortgage rates of recent weeks aren't much of a deterrent to homebuyers, and often act as a call to action for at least a time. It's just the opposite for folks looking to refinance, with even slightly higher rate enough to see a curtailment in activity. That can be seen in the weekly mortgage applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America; in the week ending October 22, an overall increase of 0.3% was driven by a 3.5% increase in requests for purchase-money mortgages, but dragged down a another 1.6% decline in refinance applications. Refi apps have declined in 8 of the last 10 weeks amid firmer rates and a dwindling pool of homeowners who can profitably refinance. Cash-out refinances are on the increase, thanks to soaring home values, but the volume of these is much smaller than for traditional rate-and-term refinances.