Statistical Tables | | Virus Fears Drive Rates Down
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Jan 20 | Dec 19 | Jan 19 | |
| Home Sales: | 93 | 173 | 98 |
| Median Price: | $1,460,000 | $1,450,000 | $1,376,500 |
| Average Price: | $2,218,177 | $1,956,607 | $1,736,696 |
| SP/LP: | 102.4% | 105.1% | 104.1% |
| Days on Market: | 37 | 31 | 40 |
| (Lofts/Townhomes/TIC) | |||
| Jan 20 | Dec 19 | Jan 19 | |
| Condo Sales: | 146 | 202 | 114 |
| Median Price: | $1,182,500 | $1,210,000 | $1,040,000 |
| Average Price: | $1,326,575 | $1,282,047 | $1,177,310 |
| SP/LP: | 100.2% | 103.2% | 100.1% |
| Days on Market: | 62 | 46 | 55 |
The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 6.1% year-over-year. It was up 0.7% from December.
The average sales price gained 27.7% year-over-year. It was up 13.4% compared to December.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell 5.1% year-over-year. Sales were off 46.2% from December. That is typical for December/January. There were 93 homes sold last month.
The median sales price for condos/townhomes was up 13.7% year-over-year. It was down 2.3% from December.
The average sales price was up 12.7% year-over-year. It was up 3.5% from December.
Sales of condos/townhomes rose 28.1% year-over-year. Sales were down 27.7% from December. There were 146 condos/townhomes sold last month.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, dropped to 105.1% from 107.9% for homes, and, it went down to 103.2% from 104.5% for condos/townhomes.
Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 31 for homes and 46 for condos/lofts.
for homes fell 0.4 of a point to –2.8. Sales momentum for condos/townhomes was up 2.4 points to –3.7.
for single-family homes rose 0.1 of a point to +1.4. Pricing momentum for condos/townhomes gained 1.3 points to +4.6.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.
| January Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,460,000 | $2,218,177 | 93 | 37 | 102.4% | 6.1% | 27.7% | -5.1% | 0.7% | 13.4% | -46.2% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,670,000 | $1,768,571 | 7 | 32 | 106.5% | 6.0% | -16.1% | -36.4% | -23.7% | -16.3% | -53.3% |
| D2: Central West | $1,445,000 | $1,502,150 | 20 | 47 | 109.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | -23.1% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,250,000 | $1,211,429 | 7 | 44 | 109.0% | 31.4% | 22.8% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 0.9% | -56.3% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $1,550,000 | $1,765,867 | 9 | 33 | 105.5% | -8.8% | 11.1% | 0.0% | -3.9% | -3.3% | -59.1% |
| D5: Central | $3,035,000 | $3,455,125 | 16 | 28 | 101.3% | 19.0% | 23.9% | 23.1% | 17.9% | 32.1% | -27.3% |
| D6: Central North | $3,550,000 | $3,550,000 | 1 | 14 | 129.1% | 97.2% | 76.9% | -66.7% | 19.1% | 26.3% | -83.3% |
| D7: North | $4,675,000 | $5,187,500 | 4 | 41 | 95.5% | -0.4% | 22.6% | 33.3% | 1.6% | -19.7% | -42.9% |
| D8: Northeast | $14,975,000 | $14,975,000 | 2 | 72 | 90.8% | 551.1% | 589.0% | -33.3% | 141.5% | 123.0% | -33.3% |
| D9: Central East | $1,460,000 | $1,453,000 | 5 | 35 | 107.2% | 12.3% | 9.7% | -44.4% | -0.2% | -7.3% | -68.8% |
| D10: Southeast | $990,308 | $1,031,710 | 22 | 34 | 110.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 0.0% | -1.6% | -3.2% | 90.5% |
| January Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,182,500 | $1,326,575 | 146 | 62 | 100.2% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 28.1% | -2.3% | 3.5% | -27.7% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,495,000 | $1,505,417 | 12 | 57 | 104.6% | 25.9% | 23.1% | 200.0% | 24.6% | 12.9% | 71.4% |
| D2: Central West | $765,000 | $765,000 | 2 | 99 | 99.0% | -20.1% | -20.1% | 0.0% | -50.7% | -47.2% | -33.3% |
| D3: Southwest | $830,000 | $889,667 | 3 | 87 | 98.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | -7.8% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $732,500 | $715,000 | 4 | 93 | 92.1% | 13.0% | 6.3% | -20.0% | -3.0% | -6.0% | -63.6% |
| D5: Central | $1,425,000 | $1,385,233 | 21 | 75 | 102.6% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 50.0% | -5.0% | -13.0% | -36.4% |
| D6: Central North | $1,187,500 | $1,220,523 | 12 | 46 | 104.2% | 52.7% | 17.9% | 100.0% | 16.1% | 5.2% | -33.3% |
| D7: North | $1,620,000 | $1,639,421 | 19 | 46 | 98.3% | 36.1% | 11.5% | 35.7% | 3.7% | -6.6% | -13.6% |
| D8: Northeast | $1,140,000 | $1,413,311 | 29 | 63 | 99.1% | 16.9% | 24.6% | 61.1% | 3.6% | 23.4% | -23.7% |
| D9: Central East | $1,145,500 | $1,197,379 | 44 | 61 | 98.9% | 15.7% | 0.1% | 12.8% | 4.1% | -0.3% | -31.3% |
| D10: Southeast | $765,000 | $765,000 | 2 | 99 | 96.1% | -5.0% | -0.5% | -60.0% | 21.4% | 19.8% | -33.3% |
Jan. 31, 2020 -- Although the spreading coronavirus probably doesn't meet the classic definition of a pandemic just yet, that's less the case for investor psyches, where concerns about the impacts of the spreading disease have caused widespread selloffs of riskier assets such as equities this week. In turn, those funds have been flowing strongly into safe-haven investments such as Treasury and other sovereign bonds (and to a lesser degree, Mortgage-Backed Securities), driving yields and mortgage rates down in kind.
It's still too early to know the full impact, but it seems likely that there will be at least some economic slowing in some economies around the globe, but where and how much have yet to play out. While unfortunate in many ways on a broad scale -- not the least of which for those who have been or will be directly impacted -- it is fortunate for American mortgage shoppers, who are seeing rates again approaching multi-year lows. This week's average rate for a conforming 30-year FRM is only 20 basis points above (what were then) 60+ year lows achieved back in 2012, and although rates may not fall that far, the economic conditions in which they are occurring (a record-long expansion, near-full employment, rising incomes) means that there is a chance that more folks will be in a position to take advantage of them.
Or at least they would, if interest rates hadn't been for the most part within about a percentage point of these rate for the past few years. Incrementally lower rates should mean incremental increases in refinance activity, and may, but there have been an awful lot of refinances at rates near enough to today's levels over that time as to have tempered any pent-up demand. Still, we should see a boost in activity, even above the 7.5% increase in applications for refinance mortgages reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America in the week ending January 24... and rates have moved lower this week again.
Can lower rates help create more home sales? Yes... but since there is a dearth of homes available to buy on the market (inventory levels of existing homes were at about a 20-year low in December, according to the National Association of Realtors) so a ramp up in sales seems unlikely. In fact, the Realtors reported that their Pending Home Sales Index dropped by 4.9% in December, with the decline attributed to a lack of homes for sale and a spike in home prices toward the end of 2019 that has again crimped affordability.
Some potential borrowers may look to new construction instead, where supply is less of an issue, but prices tend to be higher to start with and homes may be being built in places that are less optimal, such as away from transportation options or a long distance to a center-city job. Sales of new homes eased a little in December, falling by 0.4% to 694,000 (annualized) units sold. Unlike existing homes, there is a 5.7 month supply of newly-constructed units available (a five-month high, and close to optimal), and median prices of new homes sold have waxed and waned from month to month but are just 0.5% higher this December than they were last December. As such, the relative improvement in affordability produced by lower mortgage rates is largely preserved and may make the stretch to a new home possible for somewhat more potential homebuyers. As with refinances, applications for purchase-money mortgages rose last week, gaining 5.3%.
A large selloff in major stock indices here on Friday will no doubt see overseas market start the next trading week on a sour note, and the downward pressure on rates will continue. Despite a largely positive economic climate, the effects of the spreading pandemic has already blown out the bottom of out most recent Two-Month Forecast, and that seems like a trend that will continue next week. We think by the time Freddie Mac reports next Thursday morning that another handful of basis points will be shaved off the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, putting us closer to historic lows again. A couple of basis point fall would put us on full par with last September; a 4 to 9 basis point decline drops us back October 2016 levels... 11 sees us at July 16... but a dozen or more and we're back at 7-year lows.
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