Statistical Tables | | A Quieting Roar

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Oct 20 Sep 20 Oct 19
Home Sales: 283 232 256
Median Price:  $   1,625,000  $   1,665,000  $   1,650,000
Average Price:  $   1,935,000  $   1,949,721  $   1,927,717
SP/LP: 105.4% 104.8% 110.9%
Days on Market: 26 25 22
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Oct 20 Sep 20 Oct 19
Condo Sales: 294 310 261
Median Price:  $   1,150,000  $   1,205,000  $   1,325,000
Average Price:  $   1,242,098  $   1,337,655  $   1,445,728
SP/LP: 100.4% 99.9% 105.1%
Days on Market: 41 44 28

Home Sales Continue to Rise

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose again in October, gaining 10.5% year-over-year. They were up 22% from September. There were 283 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

Year-to-date, home sales are down 7.2%. Condo sales are down 14.4%.

The average sales price for homes rose 0.4% year-over-year.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 1.5% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos/lofts was down 13.2% year-over-year.

The average sales price was down 14.1% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/lofts rose 12.6% year-over-year. They were down 5.2% compared to September. There were 294 condos/lofts sold last month.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, rose from 104.8% to 105.4 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes rose from 99.9% to 100.4%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 26 for homes and 41 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes rose 0.8 of a point to –6.7. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 2.8 points to –12.8.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes fell 0.4 of a point to +3.5. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 1.9 points to +0.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

October Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,625,000 $1,935,000 283 26 105.4% -1.5% 0.4% 10.5% -2.4% -0.8% 22.0%
D1: Northwest $2,000,000 $2,222,992 25 18 107.9% -8.3% -2.5% 25.0% -13.0% -14.3% 8.7%
D2: Central West $1,545,000 $1,645,860 57 20 112.6% 5.8% 5.0% 23.9% -2.2% 0.9% 26.7%
D3: Southwest $1,305,000 $1,310,640 20 28 110.7% -0.1% -14.1% 150.0% -6.5% -4.9% 25.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,751,225 $1,879,901 40 23 107.4% -4.6% 1.8% 17.6% n/a n/a n/a
D5: Central $2,525,000 $2,681,903 39 20 102.9% 1.2% -2.0% 5.4% 5.2% -1.9% 11.4%
D6: Central North $3,350,000 $3,244,458 9 60 97.8% 6.8% 3.4% 350.0% 13.6% 15.3% 80.0%
D7: North $5,500,000 $6,042,857 7 25 98.1% 6.8% 17.6% -12.5% 82.1% 49.8% 40.0%
D8: Northeast $0 $0 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D9: Central East $1,844,000 $1,870,088 34 43 102.8% 3.9% -3.6% 0.0% 5.4% -2.3% 25.9%
D10: Southeast $1,099,445 $1,098,654 52 28 107.0% -0.1% -1.8% -1.9% -0.1% -0.4% 26.8%

 

October Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,150,000 $1,242,098 294 41 100.4% -13.2% -14.1% 12.6% -4.6% -7.1% -5.2%
D1: Northwest $1,369,500 $1,460,613 24 30 102.9% 9.5% 0.6% 71.4% 1.4% 5.1% 60.0%
D2: Central West $978,000 $1,167,556 9 26 101.8% -25.9% -8.3% 80.0% -13.1% 4.9% 0.0%
D3: Southwest $696,500 $723,250 4 75 99.1% -3.3% -3.6% 33.3% -8.4% -20.1% -20.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $805,000 $916,250 4 48 92.1% 11.0% 3.0% -42.9% -15.6% -10.5% 0.0%
D5: Central $1,325,000 $1,399,898 50 37 102.3% -19.7% -15.8% 4.2% -8.6% -0.2% -19.4%
D6: Central North $1,155,000 $1,176,806 39 33 102.0% -9.4% -7.3% 178.6% -9.6% -15.7% 11.4%
D7: North $1,380,000 $1,587,947 33 39 99.6% -10.3% -13.2% 13.8% -9.5% -18.0% 3.1%
D8: Northeast $970,000 $1,118,439 41 55 99.7% -30.0% -32.4% 51.9% -17.1% -10.6% -21.2%
D9: Central East $999,500 $1,142,971 100 44 98.2% -14.9% -14.7% 66.7% -9.1% -4.3% 9.9%
D10: Southeast $789,000 $747,333 6 44 105.9% 6.3% 0.7% 500.0% 5.2% 1.7% 20.0%

 

A Quieting Roar

October 30, 2020 -- After an unprecedented decline in the second quarter of 2020, the economy rebounded in record fashion in the third quarter. You would expect to see these kinds of swings when you move from a nearly completely shut period to one that is nearly completely open, but even with a quarter where GDP growth was nearly double the previous record gain, the reality is that the economy has only recovered about two-thirds of the growth it lost in the short, severe coronavirus pandemic recession.

That roaring rebound of activity was measured in a quarter that closed a month ago already, and while there still seems at least some forward momentum still evident, the strong blast of growth of that period is quieting. Worse, perhaps, is that the virus is again surging, which may lead to new restrictions on economic activity, as it has overseas.

When the economy began to shut back in March, it tipped into recession, posting an annualized decline in Gross Domestic Product of 4.96% for the first quarter; once nearly fully stopped in the April-June period, the plummet moved to a -31.38% annual rate. A $2 trillion CARES Act spending spree by the federal government, interest rates slashed to zero and strong bond buying by the Fed and a re-opening of the economy on a widening basis over the period sparked a record annualized increase for GDP of 33.08% in the third quarter -- nearly double the previous, post-WWII pop of 16.7% in 1950.

The strongest portion of the growth came early in the third quarter, but to us does seem to have settled back starting in August and more so in September. October's just finishing up, but early signals point to additional moderation in activity, and there's little reason to expect a continued surge for growth in the fourth quarter, although we will probably still be on the positive side of the ledger when the results are tallied... next year.

Housing has been one of the more roaring components of the unleashed economy. We learned last week that members of the National Association of Home Builders have never been happier or seen better conditions, and this week we learned that sales of new homes remained at a high level, if not quite as hot as they have been. In September, sales of newly-constructed homes eased by 3.5%, slipping back to a 959,000 annual rate of sale, and August sales were trimmed back a bit as well. Regardless, these figures are still among the best seen in about 14 years, so there's good reason why homebuilders are happy. Even with the slower pace of sales, inventories remain quite lean, with stockpiles of 3.6 months (284,000 units). With optimal inventory closer to six months, this level is certainly low enough to prompt builders to keep busy as we close 2020 and move into next year at a minimum. Also, and unlike spiking prices for existing homes, the median price of a new home sold was 0.5% below August levels, and costs of new homes are only about 3.5% higher this September than they were last year. At $324,000, the gap between the median price of a new and used home is quite narrow at just $12,200 -- about $50 per month at today's interest rates.

With the delayed-to-summer spring homebuying season likely coming to a close, and normal seasonality starting to creep in, a slowdown in homebuying is likely (if perhaps not as pronounced as would normally be the case). New home sales eased in September; that change is based upon the signing of contracts to buy. In this way, the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index is similar -- a tally of purchase contracts signed during the month. September's PHSI declined by 2.2%, a small but meaningful reversal of direction, and one that continues a moderating pattern. On a month-to-month basis, May saw a 44.3% increase over April, June saw a 15.8% increase over May, July added another 5.9% on top of June and August kicked 8.8% above that. Outside of the pandemic hard stop for sales contracts, September's the first decline since the normal seasonal slide, last seen in the typically soft November-December period last year. No worries, though; even with the September slippage, contracts in play are still about 21% above year-ago levels. Still, things are less hot than they have been.