Statistical Tables | | Third Time's The Charm?

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Oct 19 Sep 19 Oct 18
Home Sales: 244 122 244
Median Price:  $1,650,000  $1,540,000  $1,600,000
Average Price:  $1,928,523  $2,091,655  $2,168,225
SP/LP: 111.1% 109.0% 108.6%
Days on Market: 22 28 24
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Oct 19 Sep 19 Oct 18
Condo Sales: 211 185 292
Median Price:  $1,375,000  $1,325,000  $1,218,500
Average Price:  $1,487,942  $1,448,292  $1,345,345
SP/LP: 105.6% 104.0% 106.7%
Days on Market: 25 35 27

Condo Sales Prices Set New Highs, Again

Sales prices for condos/townhomes set a new high for the second month in a row.

The median sales price for condos/townhomes was up 12.8% year-over-year. It was up 3.8% from September.

The average sales price for attached homes gained 10.6% year-over-year. It was up 2.7% from September.

Sales of condos/townhomes have been lower than the year before six months in a row. Not only have they been lower, they have been significantly lower. There were 211 condos sold last month, down 27.7% year-over-year.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes surged in October. They were double the number of sales in September. There were 244 homes sold last month.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 3.1% year-over-year. It was up 7.1% from September.

The average sales price fell 11.1%  year-over-year. It was down 7.8% compared to September.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, was 111.1% for homes and 105.6% for condos/townhomes. Both were higher than the month before.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was at 22 for homes and 25 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes dropped 0.7 of a point to –29.9. Sales momentum for condos/townhomes was down 3 points to –17.6.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.1 of a point to +5.2. Pricing momentum for condos/townhomes rose 0.5 of a point to +6.1.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

October Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,650,000 $1,928,523 244 22 111.1% 3.1% -11.1% 0.0% 7.1% -7.8% 100.0%
D1: Northwest $2,181,250 $2,281,075 20 21 106.4% 1.9% 5.7% -16.7% 3.9% 0.1% 185.7%
D2: Central West $1,460,000 $1,567,978 46 18 116.0% 5.8% 5.8% 39.4% 6.0% 8.1% 76.9%
D3: Southwest $1,306,500 $1,525,861 8 23 117.8% 13.0% 15.0% -52.9% 0.5% 17.7% -27.3%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,835,500 $1,846,176 34 20 110.8% 4.0% 0.5% -12.8% 9.3% 4.8% 161.5%
D5: Central $2,495,000 $2,737,514 37 17 107.4% -0.2% -0.3% -9.8% -19.5% -18.3% 105.6%
D6: Central North $3,137,500 $3,137,500 2 28 103.8% 14.5% 30.2% -33.3% 178.9% 178.9% 100.0%
D7: North $5,148,500 $5,137,750 8 29 103.3% -16.3% -39.0% -27.3% 25.6% 12.1% -33.3%
D8: Northeast $1,950,000 $1,950,000 2 118 104.1% -52.7% -52.7% 0.0% 142.2% 142.2% 100.0%
D9: Central East $1,775,000 $1,939,824 34 20 115.4% 18.3% 19.1% 25.9% 10.9% -12.3% 385.7%
D10: Southeast $1,100,000 $1,119,155 53 25 117.3% -4.3% -1.6% 17.8% -3.8% -8.1% 103.8%

 

October Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,375,000 $1,487,942 211 25 105.6% 12.8% 10.6% -27.7% 3.8% 2.7% 14.1%
D1: Northwest $1,250,500 $1,452,411 14 21 111.0% -7.4% 6.1% -17.6% 20.5% 33.7% 133.3%
D2: Central West $1,320,000 $1,273,667 5 19 114.8% 3.1% 4.0% -54.5% 5.0% 5.6% 25.0%
D3: Southwest $720,000 $750,000 3 33 107.8% -8.6% -0.6% 0.0% -45.7% -41.5% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $725,000 $889,286 7 22 106.9% -14.7% 2.0% -12.5% -2.1% 20.1% 250.0%
D5: Central $1,650,000 $1,662,713 48 14 110.2% 20.3% 19.4% 4.3% 4.4% 5.3% 92.0%
D6: Central North $1,275,000 $1,269,643 14 20 110.3% 30.8% 12.8% -48.1% 0.8% -6.0% -30.0%
D7: North $1,538,000 $1,830,017 29 22 104.4% 8.8% 14.3% 45.0% -9.5% -11.6% 0.0%
D8: Northeast $1,385,000 $1,655,037 27 26 103.5% 10.8% 9.3% -30.8% 4.3% 13.1% 28.6%
D9: Central East $1,174,000 $1,340,084 60 38 100.7% -6.1% -2.5% -42.9% -8.6% 2.0% -9.1%
D10: Southeast $742,000 $742,000 1 105 97.0% -12.7% -8.6% -66.7% -1.1% -2.2% -66.7%

 

Third Time's The Charm?

Nov. 1, 2019 -- Citing again "the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures", and that "uncertainties about this outlook" for continued modest economic growth remain, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third time in three months, lowering the federal funds target rate to 1.5% from 1.75%, a level last seen back in March 2018.

While this change as widely expected by markets, the Fed has been struggling with exactly how to tell markets its future intentions for monetary policy without specifically tipping its hand. It did so in two ways: First, in the statement that accompanied the close of Wednesday's meeting, it removed the characterization that the central bank would "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion" in favor of a pledge that is would " monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate." As such, they committed to no specific policy action, but will dig through the data and determine what needs to be done.

Second, the Fed wanted to allay any market fear or reaction that the next move for policy (whenever it may come) would be likely to be an increase. This was handled in the press conference after the meeting, where Fed Chair Jay Powell noted that [the FOMC] "would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we would consider raising rates to address inflation concerns." With no specific plans to cut rates again unless economic conditions significantly worsen and none to raise rates until inflation is persistently strong it would seem that we may be in for an extended pause by the Fed, who would likely prefer to move to the sidelines at this point.

We learned last week that sales of both new and existing homes tailed a little bit in September, tempered by rising prices, limited inventories and other considerations. Things may pick up a little bit as we close the year, though, as the National Association of Realtors reported that their Pending Home Sales Index rose by 1.5% in October to land at its high for the year to date.

As sales of existing homes are tallied in the month the title changes hands -- a period typically 30- to 60 days from the signing of a sales contract -- we might expect to see firming sales of existing homes for November and/or December. To that end, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while applications for mortgages rose by just 0.6% overall in the week ending October 25, there was a 2.3% gain in those for purchase money mortgages (the first increase since September) while applications for refinancing slid by 0.5 percent.

While there is plenty more new data on tap for investors to consider, the indication for mortgage rates as we close this week is one of decline. If it holds, we think there's a chance for a 6-8 basis point decline in the offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac next Thursday, dropping us back closer to the middle of the summer-fall range so far.