Statistical Tables | | Fed Stands Pat, Rates Dip

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jul 20 Jun 20 Jul 19
Home Sales: 210 163 214
Median Price:  $   1,665,000  $   1,817,500  $   1,588,000
Average Price:  $   2,086,053  $   2,307,301  $   1,970,277
SP/LP: 103.8% 103.3% 111.7%
Days on Market: 26 25 23
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Jul 20 Jun 20 Jul 19
Condo Sales: 256 174 243
Median Price:  $   1,268,200  $   1,295,000  $   1,220,000
Average Price:  $   1,414,347  $   1,463,708  $   1,309,126
SP/LP: 100.4% 102.7% 106.6%
Days on Market: 38 34 33

Home Sales Continue to Surge, Prices Rise

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes jumped in July, rising 28.8% from June. They were down 1.9% year-over-year. There were 210 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

Year-to-date, home sales are down 25%. Condo sales are down 30.9%.

The average sales price for homes rose 5.9%  year-over-year.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes gained 4.8% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos/townhomes was up 4% year-over-year.

The average sales price was up 8% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/townhomes  rose 5.3% year-over-year. They were up 47.1% compared to June. There were 256 condos/townhomes  sold last month.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, rose from 103.3% to 103.8 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes fell to 100.4% from 102.7%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 26 for homes and 38 for condos/lofts. 

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes fell 1.4 points to –19.1. Sales momentum for condos/townhomes was up 2 points to –25.4.
–27.4.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.5 of a point to +3.4. Pricing momentum for condos/townhomes fell 0.2 of a point to +4.4.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

July Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,665,000 $2,086,053 210 26 103.8% 4.8% 5.9% -1.9% -8.4% -9.6% 28.8%
D1: Northwest $2,300,000 $2,373,905 21 29 114.1% 17.5% -19.5% 23.5% 9.5% 1.8% 10.5%
D2: Central West $1,475,000 $1,615,755 28 14 109.4% 5.1% 8.5% -26.3% -10.6% -5.4% 0.0%
D3: Southwest $1,155,250 $1,208,708 12 27 105.9% -11.5% -7.2% -29.4% -4.7% -1.5% 20.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,690,000 $1,888,008 25 24 106.0% -3.4% -4.3% -7.4% -0.6% 2.9% 8.7%
D5: Central $2,395,000 $2,512,465 45 23 102.5% 2.7% -10.3% 7.1% -15.7% -15.7% 32.4%
D6: Central North $2,600,000 $2,675,000 5 29 96.4% 14.3% -2.2% 66.7% -19.8% -16.6% 25.0%
D7: North $4,267,500 $5,271,136 11 66 100.7% -43.4% -30.0% 450.0% -6.7% -16.8% 37.5%
D8: Northeast $4,212,500 $4,212,500 2 30 95.4% 17.0% 17.0% 100.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
D9: Central East $1,712,500 $1,775,792 24 15 105.8% 0.7% -0.2% 0.0% -4.5% -13.9% 50.0%
D10: Southeast $1,200,000 $1,196,706 31 34 107.9% 17.4% 15.2% -13.9% 4.3% 8.1% 63.2%

 

July Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,268,200 $1,414,347 256 38 100.4% 4.0% 8.0% 5.3% -2.1% -3.4% 47.1%
D1: Northwest $1,275,000 $1,329,868 19 38 104.3% -9.3% -11.4% 35.7% -10.2% -1.4% 111.1%
D2: Central West $1,357,500 $1,376,333 6 30 105.2% 8.6% -0.5% 100.0% -16.2% -15.3% 100.0%
D3: Southwest $972,500 $972,500 2 19 105.2% 8.7% 8.7% 100.0% -19.0% -19.0% 100.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $675,000 $854,000 5 13 101.1% -2.0% 23.9% 400.0% -16.7% 2.1% 66.7%
D5: Central $1,475,000 $1,473,795 47 31 102.9% -1.8% -4.8% 23.7% -10.6% -5.5% 104.3%
D6: Central North $1,185,000 $1,211,873 22 33 102.3% -8.0% -9.4% -8.3% 15.6% -0.2% 4.8%
D7: North $1,700,000 $1,967,237 31 30 98.5% 16.8% 25.8% 40.9% 4.8% 10.1% 3.3%
D8: Northeast $4,212,500 $4,212,500 2 30 95.4% 26.8% 33.7% 11.8% 16.5% -7.1% 46.2%
D9: Central East $1,120,000 $1,279,721 81 41 98.6% -10.6% -5.2% 9.5% -1.8% 2.8% 52.8%
D10: Southeast $973,000 $972,800 5 47 100.5% 15.5% 19.7% -50.0% 20.4% 27.7% 0.0%

 

Fed Stands Pat, Rates Dip

July 31, 2020 -- With mortgage rates at or near record lows on a number of occasions, it's to be expected that home sales have picked up, even with the coronavirus making like challenging for buyers and sellers alike. We learned last week that existing home sales for June (reflective of activity in late April most of May, when things were re-opening) played a bit of catch-up, rising by 20.7% to 4.72 million (annualized) units sold after a three-month series of declined. This week, the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index posted a gain of 16.6 percent in June over May. This indicator tracks signed contracts; not all contracts will make it through to closing. However, if they did, this would suggest that sales will kick higher for July and likely August, too, and this would put the annual run rate of sales in the mid-5 million range -- about where they were to start the year and before the pandemic made a mess of things.

New applications for mortgages softened a bit in the week ending July 24, but as this is typically the height of vacation season and mortgage rates have been essentially in the same small range for weeks, there's really not a lot of urgency for borrowers to jump in for a refinance, and purchase activity remains more throttled by a lack of inventory to buy than not. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, overall applications for mortgage credit slipped 0.8%, with those for purchase-money mortgages easing 1.5% and refinances by 0.4% for the week.

Buying plans for autos remained steady, as did those for appliances, while interest in purchasing houses increased. Record low mortgage rates are likely the cause of that despite the difficult economic climate for many.

Although there continues to be a fair bit of downward pull on mortgage rates, they remain stubbornly tethered at about present levels. Presently, the balance between the poor economic climate and Fed policy stance and bond-buying programs that should be pulling rates down is being offset to a nearly equal degree by the risks of making, servicing and investing in mortgages. Although the number of mortgages in forbearance programs continues to decline ever-so-gently, storm clouds of potential future loss remain prominent, what with unemployment at extraordinary levels and the amount and duration of any future fiscal support for homeowners and renters still unclear. Even if an effective COVID-19 vaccine was announced tomorrow, it will take a year or more to distribute it on a wide enough basis to do much good. Between now and then, there remains a lot of economic difficulty to endure, and this likely spells continuing trouble for participants in the mortgage market, whether homeowner or investor.

For next week, we think there is a good probability that we'll see at least a small decline in mortgage rates. Any move of more than a basis point in the averaged offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac will be a new record, and that's probably what we'll see come next Thursday morning. Whatever the decline may be, it would likely be a whole lot more if risks were abating, but new record lows will have to do, no matter how small the move into new territory it may be.