Statistical Tables | | Turning The Page

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Dec 20 Nov 20 Dec 19
Home Sales: 267 258 175
Median Price:  $   1,582,000  $   1,691,500  $   1,450,000
Average Price:  $   2,090,948  $   2,092,465  $   1,948,749
SP/LP: 102.3% 103.4% 105.2%
Days on Market: 29 32 31
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Dec 20 Nov 20 Dec 19
Condo Sales: 345 331 216
Median Price:  $   1,100,000  $   1,200,000  $   1,198,283
Average Price:  $   1,285,705  $   1,305,881  $   1,261,689
SP/LP: 98.9% 99.9% 103.0%
Days on Market: 54 49 49

Home Sales & Prices Continue Rising

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose again in December, gaining 52.6% year-over-year. They were up 3.5% from November. There were 267 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

For the year, home sales were up 2.8%. Condo sales were down 3.3%.

The average sales price for homes rose 7.3% year-over-year.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 9.1% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos/lofts was down 8.2% year-over-year.

The average sales price was up 1.9% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/lofts rose 59.7% year-over-year. There were 345 condos/lofts sold last month.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, fell from 103.4% to 102.3 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes fell from 99.9% to 98.9%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 29 for homes and 54 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

 homes rose 3.5 points to +2.6. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 4.3 points to –3.9.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.9 of a point to +3.5. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 0.9 of a point to –1.5.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,582,000 $2,090,948 267 29 102.3% 9.1% 7.3% 52.6% -6.5% -0.1% 3.5%
D1: Northwest $2,050,000 $2,380,244 20 43 102.4% 17.1% 24.4% 25.0% -7.3% -33.8% -16.7%
D2: Central West $1,534,500 $1,617,456 44 23 112.7% 10.8% 10.0% 69.2% -1.6% -0.1% 0.0%
D3: Southwest $1,305,000 $1,210,964 17 28 105.1% 16.0% 0.9% 6.3% -9.2% -25.1% 70.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,700,000 $1,770,724 33 22 104.4% 4.6% -3.7% 57.1% 0.0% -0.5% -31.3%
D5: Central $2,225,000 $2,392,533 42 32 101.8% -13.6% -8.5% 90.9% -10.1% -13.4% 0.0%
D6: Central North $2,250,000 $2,568,000 7 23 102.8% -24.5% -8.7% 16.7% -1.1% 12.9% 250.0%
D7: North $5,247,500 $6,226,770 20 60 93.4% 14.1% -3.6% 185.7% 7.1% 10.6% 122.2%
D8: Northeast $2,520,000 $2,520,000 1 137 100.9% -59.4% -62.5% -66.7% 38.6% 38.3% -66.7%
D9: Central East $1,627,500 $1,749,837 32 21 105.2% 11.3% 11.7% 100.0% -4.8% -5.2% 6.7%
D10: Southeast $1,100,000 $1,156,418 51 24 106.8% 3.5% 4.3% 27.5% 10.6% 9.2% 10.9%

 

December Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,100,000 $1,285,705 345 54 98.9% -8.2% 1.9% 59.7% -8.3% -1.5% 4.2%
D1: Northwest $1,160,000 $1,167,421 19 46 101.7% 0.9% 0.4% 72.7% -22.0% -31.2% -20.8%
D2: Central West $1,020,000 $1,075,417 7 54 99.3% -25.8% -17.6% 75.0% -25.1% -17.1% 16.7%
D3: Southwest $738,000 $891,000 3 27 98.6% -10.4% 7.0% -25.0% -36.4% -14.9% -40.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $700,000 $699,800 5 61 100.7% -11.7% -12.9% -58.3% -13.9% -19.0% -58.3%
D5: Central $1,350,000 $1,341,713 59 47 101.7% -10.0% -15.7% 78.8% 7.4% 1.8% 3.5%
D6: Central North $1,130,000 $1,117,937 43 48 100.8% 10.5% -3.6% 138.9% -8.0% -3.7% -14.0%
D7: North $1,507,500 $1,782,229 38 54 97.9% -3.5% 1.6% 72.7% -6.7% -1.1% -9.5%
D8: Northeast $962,500 $1,308,324 43 60 97.4% -12.5% 14.2% 13.2% -19.0% -3.4% 22.9%
D9: Central East $1,050,000 $1,286,481 115 57 97.4% -4.5% 7.1% 79.7% 2.4% 12.1% 26.4%
D10: Southeast $700,000 $607,807 6 82 98.1% 1.7% -7.9% 20.0% -23.9% -33.9% 200.0%

 

Turning The Page

December 31, 2020 -- A year ago, when the calendar first turned to 2020, it's a fair bet that no one could see what was coming, or know how profoundly one little germ could change our lives. The coronavirus outbreak, epidemic and then pandemic upended everything across the globe, and even as we strive for a semblance of normalcy, it's not done yet just yet. You'll be able to witness the latest effects this evening, as normally-packed live celebrations of the change of year in cities around the world will be thinner, remotely generated and socially-distanced. "On January 1, 2021, for the first time every, hindsight will actually be 2020", according to a popular internet meme, and there's little doubt that many people will be happy to see it go.

With one country after another closing, and uncertainty and risks skyrocketing, investors got spooked and came to a point of selling everything to move to cash; interest rates spiked, financial markets became unhinged and central banks across the world moved into emergency positions, slashing rates, buying bonds and opening up new lending and market-support facilities, moving to liquefy every market and be the buyer of last resort for a range of assets if need be. The market panic was quelled, and a depression likely averted. Lockdowns ensured that the economies of many countries would fall into record-setting recession for a time, only to quickly (if partially) emerge.

As they did, unprecedented opportunities arose for homeowners. For those in difficult straits, and with the experience of at least some lessons learned in the last housing bust, a nearly instant forbearance program for homeowners was released, and without even the burden of proof of hardship. Millions signed up; a core of the most troubled homeowners (numbering about 2.8 million) yet remain in forbearance. For others who experienced no payment troubles, opportunities to refinance at record low rates -- multiple times -- appeared. Freddie Mac's formal all-time low for a conforming 30-year (3.31%) FRM was touched in mid-April, broken by the end of the of the month a new record low was set in 17 weeks since then, falling to as low 2.66% near the end of the year.

Potential homebuyers took notice, too. The year began with an early start on the spring homebuying season with a solid winter showing for sales, but that came to a relative standstill in March through May, only to revive with vigor and then some as the economy re-opened through the summer. The delayed action of the spring market was joined by additional demand from second home buyers looking to escape to remote locations, away from virus and strife, and by buyers who could now work remotely and so no longer felt constricted by proximity to center-city workspaces. With competition for houses fierce and existing home prices rising sharply, it's also likely that some demand has been "advanced" from the coming year in order to grab a home before costs increased further.

With the existing home market tight and expensive, and possibly with commuting to work far less of a concern, sales of new homes also enjoyed a strong period during the mid-part of 2020, but sales are settling back to a very solid (if less frenetic) trend as the year turns. Before a pandemic dip last spring, sales of new homes had been in a 10-year uptrend, and seem poised to return to that kind of steady, solid (if unspectacular) improvement now that the pandemic distortion in sales has cycled through.

Existing home sales have started to cool a bit from heady annualized levels too, although that's to be expected as the winter months kick in. The spring-bumped-into-summer housing season has passed, and while there is still plenty of demand there is little supply to be had, and even fewer homes are put up for sale once the onset of the extended holiday (and then winter) season begins. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index contracted again in November, declining by 2.6%, a third consecutive decline. Compared to a year ago, though, contract signings are still some 16.4% higher, and if we weigh this change against sales levels last December/January, it looks like this will translate into a 6.25 million (or so) annualized rate of sale. October's 6.86 million (annual) was the recent peak, and sales are likely to continue to cool somewhat until the next spring cycle kicks up again.