Statistical Tables | Housing Quiet

Home Prices Down After New Highs in October

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Nov 18 Oct 18 Nov 17
Home Sales: 208 242 385
Median Price:  $1,442,500  $1,600,000  $1,280,000
Average Price:  $1,874,518  $2,173,190  $1,524,443
SP/LP: 107.1% 108.6% 110.4%
Days on Market: 26 24 28
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Nov 18 Oct 18 Nov 17
Condo Sales: 245 285 321
Median Price:  $1,200,000  $1,222,000  $1,182,500
Average Price:  $1,276,616  $1,343,810  $1,277,100
SP/LP: 103.4% 106.7% 103.8%
Days on Market: 36 25 34
After reaching new highs in October, sale prices for single-family, re-sale homes in San Francisco dropped in November. The median price for homes fell 9.8% from October, while the average price dropped 13.7%.

Year-over-year, the median sales price for homes was up 12.7% and the average price gained 23%.

Home sales fell 14% from October, and they were off 46% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are down 14.6%.

Condo/loft prices also fell last month. The median sales price was down 1.8% from October, year-over-year it was up 1.5%. The average sales price lost 5% from October. It was flat year-over-year.

Condo/loft sales were off 14% from October, and, they were down 23,7% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo/loft sales are 2.5%.

Multiple offers continue to be the norm. The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking remains in the triple digits: 105.2% for homes and 101.5% for condos/lofts.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was down to 26 for homes and 36 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for homes plunged 7.6 points to –16.2. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 3.1 points to –1.2.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 0.1 of a point to +14.5. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 1.5 points to +8.4.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

The following chart shows the median price difference compared to the year before.

 

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The following chart shows the median price compared to the average price. The average price will always be more than the median price. The greater the difference, the more higher priced homes are being sold.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets, especially in San Francisco. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each district in the city by clicking the links to the left.

November Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco  $  1,442,500  $  1,874,518 208 26 107.1% 12.7% 23.0% -46.0% -9.8% -13.7% -14.0%
D1: Northwest  $  1,812,500  $  2,112,132 18 27 106.3% -6.6% 8.5% 0.0% -15.3% -2.1% -25.0%
D2: Central West  $  1,350,000  $  1,361,500 35 23 117.3% 4.7% -0.4% -12.5% -2.2% -8.1% 6.1%
D3: Southwest  $  1,100,000  $  1,141,000 13 34 107.5% -22.0% -19.9% 0.0% -4.8% -14.0% -23.5%
D4: Twin Peaks  $  1,602,500  $  1,742,369 32 20 110.4% 1.1% 7.1% -13.5% -9.2% -5.1% -17.9%
D5: Central  $  2,100,000  $  2,403,233 35 25 103.8% -18.0% -7.7% -10.3% -16.0% -12.5% -14.6%
D6: Central North  $  5,750,000  $  5,750,000 1 9 119.8% 115.6% 125.8% -75.0% 109.9% 138.6% -66.7%
D7: North  $  4,395,000  $  5,020,409 11 38 95.6% 8.2% 12.7% 10.0% -28.5% -40.4% 0.0%
D8: Northeast  $  3,040,000  $  3,040,000 2 14 101.4% 15.5% 26.6% -33.3% -81.0% -81.0% 100.0%
D9: Central East  $  1,480,000  $  1,935,095 21 36 108.4% -9.5% 10.2% -16.0% -0.9% 19.0% -19.2%
D10: Southeast  $  1,000,000  $  1,045,885 40 23 115.6% 13.6% 8.6% -23.1% -12.9% -7.5% -9.1%

 

November Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco  $  1,200,000  $  1,276,616 245 36 103.4% 1.5% 0.0% -23.7% -1.8% -5.0% -14.0%
D1: Northwest  $  1,252,000  $  1,282,347 15 41 103.7% 5.4% 1.7% 7.1% -7.3% -6.3% -11.8%
D2: Central West  $     675,000  $  1,011,667 3 85 109.6% -27.4% 1.5% 0.0% -45.8% -16.2% -70.0%
D3: Southwest  $     930,000  $     942,500 4 28 100.7% 7.5% 9.0% 100.0% 18.0% 24.9% 33.3%
D4: Twin Peaks  $  1,495,000  $  1,306,400 5 55 102.9% 145.1% 79.3% 25.0% 76.0% 49.9% -37.5%
D5: Central  $  1,532,500  $  1,457,951 42 25 108.7% 7.5% -0.6% 2.4% 12.0% 5.8% -6.7%
D6: Central North  $  1,250,000  $  1,201,429 21 28 106.0% -3.1% -8.0% -34.4% 29.2% 6.4% -19.2%
D7: North  $  1,315,000  $  1,503,967 30 23 104.1% -29.0% -33.9% 7.1% -7.0% -6.0% 50.0%
D8: Northeast  $  1,010,000  $  1,367,248 26 56 99.1% -16.9% -3.8% -45.8% -19.2% -9.7% -33.3%
D9: Central East  $  1,070,000  $  1,189,464 87 38 101.0% -7.7% 0.9% -12.1% -14.4% -13.0% -15.5%
D10: Southeast  $     609,000  $     675,997 6 71 101.2% -30.7% -19.3% 0.0% -19.3% -10.5% 200.0%

Housing Quiet

November 30, 2018 -- It's no secret that home sales have lacked traction for a good number of months now. Even with a modest 1.4% rise in existing home sales in October, the truth is that they still remain more than 5% below the same period last year. This week, the National Association of Realtors noted that their Pending Home Sales Index for October fell by 2.6%, making it now 10 consecutive months where pending sales were lower when compared to year-ago readings. The PSHI is based on signed contract to buy; home purchase transaction commonly take 45-60 days to complete, and so are a harbinger for at least a part the expected trend for existing home sales for November and December. Those sales figures won't come for about 4 and 8 weeks, respectively.

Although it remains at a robust level, we learned last week that enthusiasm among homebuilders had dropped sharply in November amid a lackluster and challenging construction climate. This week we learned the reason for the souring demeanor: Fewer folks are buying the homes they are building.

Sales of new homes slumped by 8.9% in October, continuing a downtrend that began after an expansion peak for sales of 712,000 (annualized) units last November. A year on, and the present rate of sale has slid all the way to 544,000 annual units, some 12% below the same period last year. There was a bit of a bright spot in an upward revision for September sales (from 552K to 597K) but very little to be excited about in the current climate. With the slump in sales, supplies of unsold homes swelled to 7.4 months, a level rather above optimal stockpiles of perhaps 6 months, and one that will likely put a damper on new construction trends for a while. The 336,000 built-and-ready to sell units available is the highest number of the economic expansion to date.

Moving the needle higher for new home sales may be difficult, at least for a time. Of late, somewhat more existing home inventory has become available and so competes against more expensive new stock; as well, it is likely difficult to build homes in the markets that most need additional new inventory as tracts of open land are scarce. Other headwinds such as firming mortgage rates don't help either, and with the homebuying season giving way to the holiday season, it may be spring before we see much by way of improvement.

With Black Friday behind us and the normally-quiet-for-housing holiday season kicking in, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see home sales get much of a lift anytime soon. Mortgage rates have backed off from recent peak levels by about an eighth of a percentage point which may help a bit, and with the influential 10-year Treasury holding a yield of just about 3% late Friday and other indicators also softening, we think there's a good chance of a 3-4 basis point decline in the average 30-year FRM reported by Freddie Mac come next Thursday, even with the first-week-of-the-month slew of top-tier economic data hitting the markets.

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