Statistical Tables | | Trade Policy Trumps Fed; Rates Head Lower
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Jul 19 | Jun 19 | Jul 18 | |
| Home Sales: | 207 | 181 | 338 |
| Median Price: | $1,600,000 | $1,760,000 | $1,350,000 |
| Average Price: | $1,964,755 | $2,172,580 | $1,698,121 |
| SP/LP: | 111.8% | 110.7% | 108.8% |
| Days on Market: | 23 | 22 | 28 |
| (Lofts/Townhomes/TIC) | |||
| Jul 19 | Jun 19 | Jul 18 | |
| Condo Sales: | 234 | 251 | 307 |
| Median Price: | $1,227,500 | $1,300,000 | $1,100,000 |
| Average Price: | $1,323,144 | $1,447,215 | $1,191,862 |
| SP/LP: | 106.7% | 105.7% | 106.6% |
| Days on Market: | 32 | 31 | 30 |
After setting a new high in June, the median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell in July. It was down 9.1% from June, but, it was up 18.5% year-over-year.
The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 9.6% in July from June. It was up 15.7% year-over-year.
The median sales price for condos/townhomes fell 5.6% from June, but, it was up 11.6% year-over-year.
The average sales price for condos/townhomes down 8.6% from June, but, it was up 11.0% year-over-year.
Home sales were down 38.8% from last July. There were 207 homes sold last month.
There were 234 condos sold last month, down 23.8% year-over-year.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, was 111.0% for homes and 105.5% for condos/lofts.
Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was down to 23 for homes and 32 for condos/lofts.
for homes dropped 12 points to –12.8. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 5.7 points to –6.7.
for single-family homes rose 1.8 points to +4.3. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 1.4 points to +2.7.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| July Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,600,000 | $1,964,755 | 207 | 23 | 111.8% | 18.5% | 15.7% | -38.8% | -9.1% | -9.6% | 14.4% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,958,000 | $2,947,627 | 17 | 43 | 103.0% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 21.4% | -22.7% | 16.2% | 21.4% |
| D2: Central West | $1,403,500 | $1,489,719 | 38 | 19 | 117.6% | -9.5% | -6.3% | -7.3% | -5.2% | -4.0% | 65.2% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,305,000 | $1,302,294 | 17 | 20 | 124.0% | 1.3% | -6.4% | 21.4% | -13.3% | -8.9% | 30.8% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $1,750,000 | $1,973,395 | 27 | 22 | 110.6% | 12.2% | 16.7% | -12.9% | -2.8% | -4.4% | -15.6% |
| D5: Central | $1,255,000 | $1,353,357 | 14 | 22 | 107.8% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 35.5% | -9.0% | 4.8% | 31.3% |
| D6: Central North | $2,275,000 | $2,735,000 | 3 | 31 | 94.4% | -23.7% | -5.7% | -40.0% | -10.8% | 1.1% | -40.0% |
| D7: North | $7,535,000 | $7,535,000 | 2 | 33 | 112.0% | 53.8% | 22.8% | -71.4% | -12.2% | -10.8% | -71.4% |
| D8: Northeast | $3,600,000 | $3,600,000 | 1 | 21 | 112.5% | 17.6% | 17.6% | -50.0% | 29.6% | 37.2% | -75.0% |
| D9: Central East | $1,700,000 | $1,779,771 | 24 | 19 | 113.5% | -2.9% | -2.1% | 14.3% | -2.9% | -4.4% | 41.2% |
| D10: Southeast | $929,000 | $956,344 | 22 | 40 | 105.3% | -7.0% | -10.4% | 33.3% | 0.7% | -4.9% | 5.9% |
| July Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,227,500 | $1,323,144 | 234 | 32 | 106.7% | 11.6% | 11.0% | -23.8% | -5.6% | -8.6% | -6.8% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,405,000 | $1,500,357 | 14 | 21 | 106.7% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 40.0% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 40.0% |
| D2: Central West | $1,250,000 | $1,383,333 | 3 | 28 | 114.0% | -10.7% | 11.3% | 0.0% | -9.1% | -4.1% | 0.0% |
| D3: Southwest | $895,000 | $895,000 | 1 | 16 | 119.5% | 10.5% | -1.9% | -75.0% | -0.6% | -11.9% | -66.7% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $689,000 | $689,000 | 1 | 57 | 100.0% | -25.1% | -15.0% | -85.7% | -42.6% | -30.3% | -80.0% |
| D5: Central | $1,502,500 | $1,547,295 | 38 | 18 | 113.8% | 14.7% | 21.7% | -13.6% | -0.5% | 1.3% | -9.5% |
| D6: Central North | $1,287,500 | $1,337,354 | 24 | 47 | 111.4% | 1.6% | 8.1% | -14.3% | -8.7% | -4.2% | 0.0% |
| D7: North | $1,285,000 | $1,561,333 | 21 | 25 | 106.0% | -18.2% | -7.1% | -41.7% | -30.5% | -23.3% | -27.6% |
| D8: Northeast | $960,000 | $1,120,132 | 34 | 49 | 102.2% | -15.0% | -6.9% | -12.8% | -19.2% | -32.4% | 17.2% |
| D9: Central East | $1,252,500 | $1,349,634 | 74 | 30 | 103.3% | 13.9% | 9.6% | -22.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | -16.9% |
| D10: Southeast | $842,500 | $812,400 | 10 | 28 | 108.6% | -4.5% | -9.9% | 25.0% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 66.7% |
August 2, 2019 -- In about as widely advertised a move as is
possible, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates this week. As it was
widely expected, the initial reaction by financial markets was mostly muted, but
additional statements by Fed Chairman Jay Powell disappointed stock investors,
who were hoping for either a larger cut now or an implicit promise that more
cuts were likely to come. They got neither; in fact, the Fed chair characterized
the first cut in the federal funds rate as a "mid-cycle adjustment", and
proffered that the FOMC didn't see this as "the beginning of a long series of
rate cuts" even though the Fed certainly hadn't ruled out future rate
reductions, either.
Construction spending slumped again in June, declining by 1.3% overall.
Soft spending on residential structures (-0.5%) was joined by a third decline in
outlays for commercial building and a second monthly fall in public-sector
spending. The headline decline now sees construction spending 2.1% below the
same time last year, and given modest sales of new homes, the ongoing saga with
retailers and more it may be hard for construction spending to gain much
traction in the near term.
Mortgage rates had been roughly holding a plateau -- in fact, in four of
the last five weeks the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year sported a
3.75% rate with just one slight flare higher to break it up. Until Friday, that
looked to be the case for another week, but no more. The stable period for rates
will break next week, when it looks like a fair-sized decline will be hitting
the markets. At present, the decline in the 30-year FRM when Freddie Mac reports
next Thursday is likely to be perhaps 10-12 basis points, but could be a little
more or less depending on how much residual disappointment and concern remains
in global stock markets early next week.
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