Statistical Tables | | Economic Mayday

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Apr 20 Mar 20 Apr 19
Home Sales: 101 157 226
Median Price:  $1,699,000  $1,655,000  $1,612,500
Average Price:  $2,350,767  $2,093,993  $2,235,456
SP/LP: 99.5% 109.6% 107.5%
Days on Market: 22 20 26
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Apr 20 Mar 20 Apr 19
Condo Sales: 111 216 317
Median Price:  $1,300,000  $1,270,000  $1,235,000
Average Price:  $1,394,775  $1,379,344  $1,365,783
SP/LP: 104.3% 103.6% 104.4%
Days on Market: 32 27 38

Sales Plunge in April

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked in April compared to last year. I think we all expected this amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. Home sales were down 55.3%. There were 101 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.

We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.

Inventory is also dropping. At the end of March there were 459 homes for sale. On the 7th of May there were only 202.

Interestingly, the average sales price set a new all-time high last month. It gained 5.2%  year-over-year.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 5.4% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos/townhomes was up 5.3% year-over-year.

The average sales price was up 2.1% year-over-year.

Sales of condos/townhomes  dropped 65% year-over-year. There were 111 condos/townhomes  sold last month.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, dropped below 100% for the first time since December 2012. It fell to 97.5% from 109.6 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes rose to 104.3% from 103.6%.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 22 for homes and 32 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes fell 8.1 points to –10.8. Sales momentum for condos/townhomes was down 9 points to –12.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 0.6 of a point to +3.7. Pricing momentum for condos/townhomes gained 0.5 of a point to +6.2.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

April Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,699,000 $2,350,767 101 22 99.5% 5.4% 5.2% -55.3% 2.7% 12.3% -35.7%
D1: Northwest $1,732,500 $1,881,688 8 27 106.5% -21.4% -18.1% -46.7% -26.3% -23.2% -33.3%
D2: Central West $1,511,000 $1,604,538 13 16 112.1% -5.6% 0.4% -66.7% 0.7% 8.1% -18.8%
D3: Southwest $1,148,750 $1,233,313 8 23 111.1% -0.6% -0.8% -50.0% -0.1% -1.3% -11.1%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,905,000 $2,015,456 17 15 114.2% 8.5% 1.3% -48.5% -1.8% -4.0% -32.0%
D5: Central $2,725,500 $2,933,125 16 22 103.3% 33.0% 21.6% -52.9% 1.4% 9.8% -33.3%
D6: Central North $2,155,000 $2,785,000 3 24 97.5% -17.8% 6.2% 50.0% -1.6% 8.9% -25.0%
D7: North $7,750,000 $10,588,950 6 48 82.2% 25.0% 21.2% -60.0% 75.6% 109.6% -40.0%
D8: Northeast $0 $0 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D9: Central East $1,687,000 $1,877,375 8 21 107.8% 5.4% 0.0% -65.2% 8.8% 10.1% -57.9%
D10: Southeast $1,016,500 $1,048,400 20 22 107.7% -0.8% -3.1% -47.4% -15.8% -14.8% -9.1%

 

April Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,300,000 $1,394,775 111 32 104.3% 5.3% 2.1% -65.0% 2.4% 1.1% -48.6%
D1: Northwest $1,515,000 $1,677,636 11 41 109.2% 7.4% 10.1% -56.0% -5.5% 3.3% 10.0%
D2: Central West $1,315,000 $1,371,667 3 16 107.1% -5.2% -1.1% 50.0% 22.9% 30.8% -40.0%
D3: Southwest $1,260,000 $1,260,000 1 13 126.3% 32.6% 31.5% -80.0% 44.0% 44.0% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $855,000 $855,000 2 20 100.9% -22.3% -12.3% -60.0% 36.8% 65.2% -60.0%
D5: Central $1,480,000 $1,511,895 19 15 109.2% -0.7% -1.7% -56.8% 3.9% 9.4% -44.1%
D6: Central North $1,400,000 $1,312,286 7 16 109.4% 17.6% 9.2% -68.2% 2.6% -3.7% -58.8%
D7: North $1,459,000 $1,539,417 12 37 102.1% -5.1% -9.5% -57.1% -11.0% -18.6% -20.0%
D8: Northeast $1,275,000 $1,634,853 17 46 101.2% 20.0% 37.7% -68.5% 5.2% 13.4% -50.0%
D9: Central East $1,151,000 $1,228,590 35 35 101.2% -7.3% -11.5% -68.2% -7.9% -8.4% -61.5%
D10: Southeast $771,000 $674,571 5 32 101.1% -5.4% -11.4% 0.0% -10.3% -19.6% 25.0%

 

Economic Mayday

May 1, 2020 -- The figures coming in continue to be truly staggering, and not just in the United States. The Eurozone GDP figure for the first quarter of 2020 was released this week, and the 3.8% decline from the first quarter was the largest ever for the European Union tracking series, which dates to 1995. This translates to an annualized 14.4% decline, so the drop-off was quite severe, and far in excess of the decline in the U.S., which posted it's own sharp contraction with a 4.8% annualized drop in GDP for the same period.

The housing market will struggle to provide any contribution to economic growth for at least a time, although some sales are taking place. The National Association of Realtors reported their Pending Home Sales Index for April, and the figure didn't drop to zero, but rather showed a 20.8% month-to-month decline in activity from March as well as a 16.5% decline from the same period a year ago. It is the height of the spring housing market season, and while workarounds, virtual open houses and more will help support activity and sales, it's a balky process and not as familiar for many potential buyers and sellers, and only the most motivated participants will try to engage it.

Still, the Mortgage Bankers Association noted that applications for purchase-money mortgages were up in the week ending April 24, with the 11.6% gain a second consecutive increase. This was the first back-to-back gain since the first two weeks of the year, and at least shows a little sign of life. Applications for refinancing slipped, but as mortgage rates dropped to new "all time" lows this week again, odds favor that at least some homeowners with jobs and not having trouble making existing payments may jump in to the market. How many fit this population is unclear; lots of in-place mortgages have interest rates not all that far from today's levels.

In most areas, construction has been considered an "essential" function, so many projects continued apace. Construction spending increased in March, rising 0.9%, powered higher by outlays for residential structures (+2.3%) and public-works spending (+1.6%). Commercial, retail and industrial outlays declined by 1.3% and those sectors will likely continue to be a drag as offices and stores remain empty and closed, with significant concerns about how many will re-open once they are allowed to do so.

Mortgage rates slipped a little more than we expected this week, and appear to be settling down somewhat more, arguably for a number of reasons. Lenders are working through the surge of refinance business from March and don't need to price as defensively to meter inbound business; recent announcements that give servicers some clarity as to their obligations to manage forbearance costs help, too, as does the change in regulation that allows Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase loans that have fallen into forbearance shortly after being originated. As well, the Fed's continuing pledge to purchase Treasuries and MBS in whatever amounts are needed to ensure market function completes the circle to a degree. Rates are low, and if a lender originates a loan that quickly sours, they wont be stuck with it; servicers with loans that have gone sour don't have obligations to forward payments to the loan's owner for longer than four months, and the level of new business coming in to lender doors (virtually, of course) is at a more manageable level. If all these components continue along, odds favor somewhat lower rates as we move forward, for at least a time.

With rates a little lower than expected this week, there's likely somewhat less of a decline on tap next week, but a decline does seem in the offing. Call it a 5-6 basis point decline in the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage as reported by Freddie Mac come next Thursday morning.