Statistical Tables | | Turning The Page
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Dec 20 | Nov 20 | Dec 19 | |
| Home Sales: | 267 | 258 | 175 |
| Median Price: | $ 1,582,000 | $ 1,691,500 | $ 1,450,000 |
| Average Price: | $ 2,090,948 | $ 2,092,465 | $ 1,948,749 |
| SP/LP: | 102.3% | 103.4% | 105.2% |
| Days on Market: | 29 | 32 | 31 |
| (Lofts/Townhomes/TIC) | |||
| Dec 20 | Nov 20 | Dec 19 | |
| Condo Sales: | 345 | 331 | 216 |
| Median Price: | $ 1,100,000 | $ 1,200,000 | $ 1,198,283 |
| Average Price: | $ 1,285,705 | $ 1,305,881 | $ 1,261,689 |
| SP/LP: | 98.9% | 99.9% | 103.0% |
| Days on Market: | 54 | 49 | 49 |
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose again in December, gaining 52.6% year-over-year. They were up 3.5% from November. There were 267 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214.
For the year, home sales were up 2.8%. Condo sales were down 3.3%.
The average sales price for homes rose 7.3% year-over-year.
The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 9.1% year-over-year.
The median sales price for condos/lofts was down 8.2% year-over-year.
The average sales price was up 1.9% year-over-year.
Sales of condos/lofts rose 59.7% year-over-year. There were 345 condos/lofts sold last month.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, fell from 103.4% to 102.3 % for homes. The ratio for condos/townhomes fell from 99.9% to 98.9%.
Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 29 for homes and 54 for condos/lofts.
homes rose 3.5 points to +2.6. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was up 4.3 points to –3.9.
for single-family homes rose 0.9 of a point to +3.5. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 0.9 of a point to –1.5.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.
the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.
As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.
The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.
| December Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,582,000 | $2,090,948 | 267 | 29 | 102.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 52.6% | -6.5% | -0.1% | 3.5% |
| D1: Northwest | $2,050,000 | $2,380,244 | 20 | 43 | 102.4% | 17.1% | 24.4% | 25.0% | -7.3% | -33.8% | -16.7% |
| D2: Central West | $1,534,500 | $1,617,456 | 44 | 23 | 112.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 69.2% | -1.6% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| D3: Southwest | $1,305,000 | $1,210,964 | 17 | 28 | 105.1% | 16.0% | 0.9% | 6.3% | -9.2% | -25.1% | 70.0% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $1,700,000 | $1,770,724 | 33 | 22 | 104.4% | 4.6% | -3.7% | 57.1% | 0.0% | -0.5% | -31.3% |
| D5: Central | $2,225,000 | $2,392,533 | 42 | 32 | 101.8% | -13.6% | -8.5% | 90.9% | -10.1% | -13.4% | 0.0% |
| D6: Central North | $2,250,000 | $2,568,000 | 7 | 23 | 102.8% | -24.5% | -8.7% | 16.7% | -1.1% | 12.9% | 250.0% |
| D7: North | $5,247,500 | $6,226,770 | 20 | 60 | 93.4% | 14.1% | -3.6% | 185.7% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 122.2% |
| D8: Northeast | $2,520,000 | $2,520,000 | 1 | 137 | 100.9% | -59.4% | -62.5% | -66.7% | 38.6% | 38.3% | -66.7% |
| D9: Central East | $1,627,500 | $1,749,837 | 32 | 21 | 105.2% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 100.0% | -4.8% | -5.2% | 6.7% |
| D10: Southeast | $1,100,000 | $1,156,418 | 51 | 24 | 106.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 27.5% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.9% |
| December Sales Statistics | |||||||||||
| (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) | |||||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Yearly Change | Monthly Change | ||||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | Median | Average | Sales | |
| San Francisco | $1,100,000 | $1,285,705 | 345 | 54 | 98.9% | -8.2% | 1.9% | 59.7% | -8.3% | -1.5% | 4.2% |
| D1: Northwest | $1,160,000 | $1,167,421 | 19 | 46 | 101.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 72.7% | -22.0% | -31.2% | -20.8% |
| D2: Central West | $1,020,000 | $1,075,417 | 7 | 54 | 99.3% | -25.8% | -17.6% | 75.0% | -25.1% | -17.1% | 16.7% |
| D3: Southwest | $738,000 | $891,000 | 3 | 27 | 98.6% | -10.4% | 7.0% | -25.0% | -36.4% | -14.9% | -40.0% |
| D4: Twin Peaks | $700,000 | $699,800 | 5 | 61 | 100.7% | -11.7% | -12.9% | -58.3% | -13.9% | -19.0% | -58.3% |
| D5: Central | $1,350,000 | $1,341,713 | 59 | 47 | 101.7% | -10.0% | -15.7% | 78.8% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 3.5% |
| D6: Central North | $1,130,000 | $1,117,937 | 43 | 48 | 100.8% | 10.5% | -3.6% | 138.9% | -8.0% | -3.7% | -14.0% |
| D7: North | $1,507,500 | $1,782,229 | 38 | 54 | 97.9% | -3.5% | 1.6% | 72.7% | -6.7% | -1.1% | -9.5% |
| D8: Northeast | $962,500 | $1,308,324 | 43 | 60 | 97.4% | -12.5% | 14.2% | 13.2% | -19.0% | -3.4% | 22.9% |
| D9: Central East | $1,050,000 | $1,286,481 | 115 | 57 | 97.4% | -4.5% | 7.1% | 79.7% | 2.4% | 12.1% | 26.4% |
| D10: Southeast | $700,000 | $607,807 | 6 | 82 | 98.1% | 1.7% | -7.9% | 20.0% | -23.9% | -33.9% | 200.0% |
December 31, 2020
-- A year ago, when the calendar first turned to 2020, it's a fair bet that no
one could see what was coming, or know how profoundly one little germ could
change our lives. The coronavirus outbreak, epidemic and then pandemic upended
everything across the globe, and even as we strive for a semblance of normalcy,
it's not done yet just yet. You'll be able to witness the latest effects this
evening, as normally-packed live celebrations of the change of year in cities
around the world will be thinner, remotely generated and socially-distanced. "On
January 1, 2021, for the first time every, hindsight will actually be 2020",
according to a popular internet meme, and there's little doubt that many people
will be happy to see it go.
With one country after another closing, and uncertainty and risks skyrocketing,
investors got spooked and came to a point of selling everything to move to cash;
interest rates spiked, financial markets became unhinged and central banks
across the world moved into emergency positions, slashing rates, buying bonds
and opening up new lending and market-support facilities, moving to liquefy
every market and be the buyer of last resort for a range of assets if need be.
The market panic was quelled, and a depression likely averted. Lockdowns ensured
that the economies of many countries would fall into record-setting recession
for a time, only to quickly (if partially) emerge.
As they did, unprecedented opportunities arose for homeowners. For those in
difficult straits, and with the experience of at least some lessons learned in
the last housing bust, a nearly instant forbearance program for homeowners was
released, and without even the burden of proof of hardship. Millions signed up;
a core of the most troubled homeowners (numbering about 2.8 million) yet remain
in forbearance. For others who experienced no payment troubles, opportunities to
refinance at record low rates -- multiple times -- appeared. Freddie Mac's
formal all-time low for a conforming 30-year (3.31%) FRM was touched in
mid-April, broken by the end of the of the month a new record low was set in 17
weeks since then, falling to as low 2.66% near the end of the year.
Potential homebuyers took notice, too. The year began with an early start on the
spring homebuying season with a solid winter showing for sales, but that came to
a relative standstill in March through May, only to revive with vigor and then
some as the economy re-opened through the summer. The delayed action of the
spring market was joined by additional demand from second home buyers looking to
escape to remote locations, away from virus and strife, and by buyers who could
now work remotely and so no longer felt constricted by proximity to center-city
workspaces. With competition for houses fierce and existing home prices rising
sharply, it's also likely that some demand has been "advanced" from the coming
year in order to grab a home before costs increased further.
With the existing home market tight and expensive, and possibly with commuting
to work far less of a concern, sales of new homes also enjoyed a strong period
during the mid-part of 2020, but sales are settling back to a very solid (if
less frenetic) trend as the year turns. Before a pandemic dip last spring, sales
of new homes had been in a 10-year uptrend, and seem poised to return to that
kind of steady, solid (if unspectacular) improvement now that the pandemic
distortion in sales has cycled through.
Existing home sales have started to cool a bit from heady annualized levels too,
although that's to be expected as the winter months kick in. The
spring-bumped-into-summer housing season has passed, and while there is still
plenty of demand there is little supply to be had, and even fewer homes are put
up for sale once the onset of the extended holiday (and then winter) season
begins. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index contracted
again in November, declining by 2.6%, a third consecutive decline. Compared to a
year ago, though, contract signings are still some 16.4% higher, and if we weigh
this change against sales levels last December/January, it looks like this will
translate into a 6.25 million (or so) annualized rate of sale. October's 6.86
million (annual) was the recent peak, and sales are likely to continue to cool
somewhat until the next spring cycle kicks up again.
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