Statistical Tables | | Trade Policy Trumps Fed; Rates Head Lower

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Jul 19 Jun 19 Jul 18
Home Sales: 207 181 338
Median Price:  $1,600,000  $1,760,000  $1,350,000
Average Price:  $1,964,755  $2,172,580  $1,698,121
SP/LP: 111.8% 110.7% 108.8%
Days on Market: 23 22 28
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Jul 19 Jun 19 Jul 18
Condo Sales: 234 251 307
Median Price:  $1,227,500  $1,300,000  $1,100,000
Average Price:  $1,323,144  $1,447,215  $1,191,862
SP/LP: 106.7% 105.7% 106.6%
Days on Market: 32 31 30

Prices Drop from June, Up Over Last Year

After setting a new high in June, the median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell in July. It was down 9.1% from June, but, it was up 18.5% year-over-year.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 9.6% in July from June. It was up 15.7% year-over-year.

The median sales price for condos/townhomes fell 5.6% from June, but, it was up 11.6% year-over-year.

The average sales price for condos/townhomes down 8.6% from June, but, it was up 11.0% year-over-year.

Home sales were down 38.8% from last July. There were 207 homes sold last month.

There were 234 condos sold last month, down 23.8% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, was 111.0% for homes and 105.5% for condos/lofts.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was down to 23 for homes and 32 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes dropped 12 points to –12.8. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 5.7 points to –6.7.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.8 points to +4.3. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 1.4 points to +2.7.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

July Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,600,000 $1,964,755 207 23 111.8% 18.5% 15.7% -38.8% -9.1% -9.6% 14.4%
D1: Northwest $1,958,000 $2,947,627 17 43 103.0% 5.4% 9.2% 21.4% -22.7% 16.2% 21.4%
D2: Central West $1,403,500 $1,489,719 38 19 117.6% -9.5% -6.3% -7.3% -5.2% -4.0% 65.2%
D3: Southwest $1,305,000 $1,302,294 17 20 124.0% 1.3% -6.4% 21.4% -13.3% -8.9% 30.8%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,750,000 $1,973,395 27 22 110.6% 12.2% 16.7% -12.9% -2.8% -4.4% -15.6%
D5: Central $1,255,000 $1,353,357 14 22 107.8% 10.8% 15.7% 35.5% -9.0% 4.8% 31.3%
D6: Central North $2,275,000 $2,735,000 3 31 94.4% -23.7% -5.7% -40.0% -10.8% 1.1% -40.0%
D7: North $7,535,000 $7,535,000 2 33 112.0% 53.8% 22.8% -71.4% -12.2% -10.8% -71.4%
D8: Northeast $3,600,000 $3,600,000 1 21 112.5% 17.6% 17.6% -50.0% 29.6% 37.2% -75.0%
D9: Central East $1,700,000 $1,779,771 24 19 113.5% -2.9% -2.1% 14.3% -2.9% -4.4% 41.2%
D10: Southeast $929,000 $956,344 22 40 105.3% -7.0% -10.4% 33.3% 0.7% -4.9% 5.9%

 

July Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,227,500 $1,323,144 234 32 106.7% 11.6% 11.0% -23.8% -5.6% -8.6% -6.8%
D1: Northwest $1,405,000 $1,500,357 14 21 106.7% 8.1% 2.0% 40.0% 8.1% 14.3% 40.0%
D2: Central West $1,250,000 $1,383,333 3 28 114.0% -10.7% 11.3% 0.0% -9.1% -4.1% 0.0%
D3: Southwest $895,000 $895,000 1 16 119.5% 10.5% -1.9% -75.0% -0.6% -11.9% -66.7%
D4: Twin Peaks $689,000 $689,000 1 57 100.0% -25.1% -15.0% -85.7% -42.6% -30.3% -80.0%
D5: Central $1,502,500 $1,547,295 38 18 113.8% 14.7% 21.7% -13.6% -0.5% 1.3% -9.5%
D6: Central North $1,287,500 $1,337,354 24 47 111.4% 1.6% 8.1% -14.3% -8.7% -4.2% 0.0%
D7: North $1,285,000 $1,561,333 21 25 106.0% -18.2% -7.1% -41.7% -30.5% -23.3% -27.6%
D8: Northeast $960,000 $1,120,132 34 49 102.2% -15.0% -6.9% -12.8% -19.2% -32.4% 17.2%
D9: Central East $1,252,500 $1,349,634 74 30 103.3% 13.9% 9.6% -22.1% 2.2% 2.7% -16.9%
D10: Southeast $842,500 $812,400 10 28 108.6% -4.5% -9.9% 25.0% 8.7% 5.6% 66.7%

 

Trade Policy Trumps Fed; Rates Head Lower

August 2, 2019 -- In about as widely advertised a move as is possible, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates this week. As it was widely expected, the initial reaction by financial markets was mostly muted, but additional statements by Fed Chairman Jay Powell disappointed stock investors, who were hoping for either a larger cut now or an implicit promise that more cuts were likely to come. They got neither; in fact, the Fed chair characterized the first cut in the federal funds rate as a "mid-cycle adjustment", and proffered that the FOMC didn't see this as "the beginning of a long series of rate cuts" even though the Fed certainly hadn't ruled out future rate reductions, either.

Construction spending slumped again in June, declining by 1.3% overall. Soft spending on residential structures (-0.5%) was joined by a third decline in outlays for commercial building and a second monthly fall in public-sector spending. The headline decline now sees construction spending 2.1% below the same time last year, and given modest sales of new homes, the ongoing saga with retailers and more it may be hard for construction spending to gain much traction in the near term.

Mortgage rates had been roughly holding a plateau -- in fact, in four of the last five weeks the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year sported a 3.75% rate with just one slight flare higher to break it up. Until Friday, that looked to be the case for another week, but no more. The stable period for rates will break next week, when it looks like a fair-sized decline will be hitting the markets. At present, the decline in the 30-year FRM when Freddie Mac reports next Thursday is likely to be perhaps 10-12 basis points, but could be a little more or less depending on how much residual disappointment and concern remains in global stock markets early next week.