Statistical Tables | Rearview Mirror Reflecting Softer Patch

Upcoming Tech IPOs to Boost Prices

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Feb 19 Jan 19 Feb 18
Home Sales: 110 95 174
Median Price:  $1,505,000  $1,375,000  $1,350,000
Average Price:  $1,878,466  $1,680,053  $1,637,887
SP/LP: 108.2% 104.2% 110.1%
Days on Market: 30 41 29
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Feb 19 Jan 19 Feb 18
Condo Sales: 157 110 220
Median Price:  $1,150,000  $1,050,000  $   986,500
Average Price:  $1,368,026  $1,176,949  $1,229,737
SP/LP: 102.6% 100.1% 105.0%
Days on Market: 40 57 36

2019 is slated to produce a long list of multi-billion-dollar IPOs from San Francisco Bay Area heavyweights like Lyft, Uber, Palantir, Pinterest, Airbnb, Slack, Postmates, and Instacart. The result will be a massive and sudden injection of liquid cash into a region already infamous for having the nation’s priciest real estate, according to Patrick Howell O'Neill, writing for Gizmodo.

One of the projections in his article is the IPOs will produce 211 techie buyers to purchase property above $10 million, while thousands more are expected to buy above $1 million.

To read the full article, go to https://tinyurl.com/y45rc6qy

Prices Bounce in February

Sales prices of both single-family, re-sale homes and condos/townhomes rose last month from January with the average sales price for condos/townhomes reaching a new all-time high.

Sales continue to be anemic. There were only 110 single-family homes sold last month. The monthly average is 226. Year-over-year, home sales were off 36.8%.

There were 157 condos sold last month, off 28.6% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking 106.9% for homes and 101.6% for condos/lofts.

Although multiple offers continue to be the norm, the number of offers on a property continue to decline.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was down to 30 for homes and 40 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…
for homes dropped 2.3 points to –22.4. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 3.6 points to –9.2.

Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 0.8 of a point to +13.4. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 2.2 points to +9.8.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

The following chart shows the median price difference compared to the year before.

 

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The following chart shows the median price compared to the average price. The average price will always be more than the median price. The greater the difference, the more higher priced homes are being sold.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets, especially in San Francisco. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each district in the city by clicking the links to the left.

February Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco  $            1,505,000  $           1,878,466 110 30 108.2% 11.5% 14.7% -36.8% 9.5% 11.8% 15.8%
D1: Northwest  $            1,630,000  $           2,710,273 11 40 104.9% -15.3% 37.2% 22.2% 3.5% 28.5% 0.0%
D2: Central West  $            1,605,000  $           1,606,481 15 20 118.6% 12.2% 14.1% 50.0% 16.8% 12.9% -16.7%
D3: Southwest  $            1,010,000  $           1,193,571 7 22 111.3% -1.5% -0.9% 16.7% 6.1% 21.0% 16.7%
D4: Twin Peaks  $            1,520,000  $           1,836,529 17 29 110.9% -17.8% -8.7% 13.3% -10.6% 15.6% 88.9%
D5: Central  $            2,275,000  $           2,635,462 13 22 106.1% -22.2% -22.3% -35.0% -10.8% -5.5% 0.0%
D6: Central North  $            2,450,000  $           2,450,000 2 4 106.9% 10.6% 5.2% -33.3% 36.1% 22.1% -33.3%
D7: North  $            4,065,000  $           3,850,000 6 59 97.0% -17.0% -27.1% 20.0% -13.4% -9.0% 100.0%
D8: Northeast  $            3,087,500  $           3,087,500 2 50 96.6% -38.2% -38.2% 100.0% 16.5% 16.5% 100.0%
D9: Central East  $            1,520,000  $           1,612,625 12 29 114.4% -6.5% 1.8% -14.3% 16.9% 21.8% 33.3%
D10: Southeast  $              965,000  $           1,014,300 25 32 112.7% -9.0% -10.4% 8.7% 3.9% 6.1% 13.6%

 

February Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco  $            1,150,000  $           1,368,026 157 40 102.6% 16.6% 11.2% -28.6% 9.5% 16.2% 42.7%
D1: Northwest  $            1,350,000  $           1,418,222 9 11 106.3% 13.9% 5.3% 0.0% 13.7% 16.0% 125.0%
D2: Central West  $            1,175,000  $           1,106,667 3 30 129.1% -14.2% -5.9% -57.1% 22.7% 15.6% 50.0%
D3: Southwest  $            1,022,500  $           1,022,500 2 74 92.0% 34.5% 34.5% 0.0% n/a n/a n/a
D4: Twin Peaks  $                      -    $                      -   0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D5: Central  $            1,575,000  $           1,417,568 19 23 111.4% 7.7% -1.1% -26.9% 25.5% 4.7% 35.7%
D6: Central North  $            1,200,000  $           1,206,000 14 28 103.4% -1.2% -2.0% -39.1% 54.3% 16.5% 133.3%
D7: North  $            1,550,000  $           1,849,947 19 29 101.8% -6.1% -8.1% 26.7% 30.3% 25.8% 35.7%
D8: Northeast  $            1,025,000  $           1,584,882 17 71 97.7% -20.8% -5.1% 6.3% 5.1% 39.7% -5.6%
D9: Central East  $            1,075,000  $           1,322,930 63 42 101.0% 9.8% 15.7% -25.9% 8.6% 10.6% 61.5%
D10: Southeast  $              845,000  $              769,667 3 34 99.0% 32.3% 9.0% -72.7% 5.0% 0.1% -40.0%

Rearview Mirror Reflecting Softer Patch

March 1, 2019 -- Although certain confirmations were delayed by the month-long government shutdown, there can be no doubt that economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2018 softened somewhat.
Data covering the end of that period is still trickling out, but December seems a long time ago now, and of course, things continue to change. Newer data covering January and February suggest relatively improving fortunes for the U.S. economy even as there are a number of headwinds.

In his semi-annual testimony before Congress this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell noted that the picture has turned more mixed, saying that "Over the past few months we have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals," and adding that "Right now, the predominant risks to our economy are slowing global growth."

After the December rate hike further spooked already-unnerved financial markets, the Fed took great pains to explain that despite the increase, it had moved to a more patient, neutral stance. That message has been played at every opportunity, and soothed markets have since improved measurably. It was reiterated again this week by Mr. Powell.

"With our policy rate in the range of neutral, with muted inflation pressures and with some of the downside risks we've talked about, this is a good time to be patient and watch and wait and see how the situation evolves," he stated Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.

Amid the worst December for stock markets in about 90 years and the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rates in about 7, it's little wonder that housing starts plummeted during the month. An 11.2% decline in new residential construction was tallied during the month, with housing starts dropping to 1.078 million annualized units under construction. Single-family starts declined by 6.7%, falling to 758,000 while those for multi-family units slumped 20.4% to 320,000 units under construction. Permits for future activity were rather improved by comparison, rising by 0.3% to 1.326 million for the period. As well, builder sentiment also has improved of late, so the prospects for firmer activity seem pretty solid. We'll get the December report for sales of new homes on March 4, but there will have been two months of actual activity reflecting improving conditions since then.

Lower mortgage rates help home sales, of course. Since December's 7-year highs, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have retreated to one-year lows, and that has sparked some interest. The National Association of Realtors noted that its Pending Home Sales Index rose by 4.6% in January compared to December, and with a 45- to 60-day lag to closing and recordation, it would seem that we'll start to see an upturn in existing home sales before long.

With the still-solid GDP report covering the fourth quarter leading the way, underlying interest rates that influence fixed-rate mortgages moved higher late in the week and mortgage rates are likely to follow. However, the GDP report is backward-looking and we're already two-thirds through the first quarter of 2019, where incoming data has generally has had a mixed-to-softer tone. With this in mind, while odds may favor firmer mortgage rates in the next week there will likely also be a bit of present-reality tempering in place. As such, we think that the average 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac next Thursday will rise by perhaps just four or five basis points.

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