Statistical Tables | | Airstruck Rates

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Dec 19 Nov 19 Dec 18
Home Sales: 173 198 160
Median Price:  $1,450,000  $1,619,000  $1,492,500
Average Price:  $1,956,607  $1,993,996  $1,786,072
SP/LP: 105.1% 107.9% 106.5%
Days on Market: 31 24 33
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Dec 19 Nov 19 Dec 18
Condo Sales: 202 270 194
Median Price:  $1,210,000  $1,180,000  $1,170,000
Average Price:  $1,282,047  $1,327,410  $1,329,973
SP/LP: 103.2% 104.5% 100.8%
Days on Market: 46 33 44

Prices  and Sales Mixed to End the Year

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 2.8% year-over-year. It was off 10.4% from November.

Pricing momentum…

The average sales price gained 9.5%  year-over-year. It was down 1.9% compared to November.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 8.1% year-over-year. Sales were off 12.6% from November. There were 173 homes sold last month. For the year, home sales were down 2.4%.

The median sales price for condos/townhomes was up 3.4% year-over-year. It was up 2.5% from November.

The average sales price fell 3.6% year-over-year. It was down 3.4% from November.

Sales of condos/townhomes  rose 4.1% year-over-year. Sales were down 25.2% from November. There were 202 condos/townhomes  sold last month. For the year, sales were down 5.8%.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, dropped to 105.1% from 107.9% for homes, and, it went down to 103.2% from 104.5% for condos/townhomes.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was 31 for homes and 46 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes gained 0.2 of a point to –2.4. Sales momentum for condos/townhomes was up 2.3  points to –6.1.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes dropped 0.4 of a point to +1.3. Pricing momentum for condos/townhomes was flat at +3.3.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for San Francisco are below. Monthly graphs are available for each area in the city.

December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,450,000 $1,956,607 173 31 105.1% -2.8% 9.5% 8.1% -10.4% -1.9% -12.6%
D1: Northwest $2,188,000 $2,111,867 15 28 106.7% 12.9% -1.0% -6.3% 23.3% -9.0% 0.0%
D2: Central West $1,385,000 $1,469,885 26 25 114.7% 7.4% 6.2% 4.0% 2.6% 3.3% -3.7%
D3: Southwest $1,125,000 $1,200,625 16 22 108.7% -2.2% -4.4% 77.8% -12.5% -8.1% 128.6%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,612,500 $1,825,528 22 29 102.0% -2.5% -0.1% -8.3% 3.7% -0.1% 22.2%
D5: Central $2,575,000 $2,616,082 22 34 104.0% 16.3% 7.4% -15.4% 19.8% 12.3% -4.3%
D6: Central North $2,981,500 $2,811,333 6 56 103.9% 68.9% 54.5% 50.0% -7.1% -6.1% 100.0%
D7: North $4,600,000 $6,458,929 7 32 97.8% 29.6% 39.8% 40.0% -10.7% 21.1% -12.5%
D8: Northeast $6,200,000 $6,716,667 3 89 94.0% 103.9% 120.9% 50.0% 148.5% 169.2% 50.0%
D9: Central East $1,462,500 $1,567,250 16 33 109.1% 7.3% -5.7% 14.3% -16.4% -21.9% 23.1%
D10: Southeast $38 $38 40 1 0.0% -100.0% -100.0% 29.0% -100.0% -100.0% 90.5%

 

December Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,210,000 $1,282,047 202 46 103.2% 3.4% -3.6% 4.1% 2.5% -3.4% -25.2%
D1: Northwest $12 $10 7 1 0.0% -100.0% -100.0% -46.2% -100.0% -100.0% -41.7%
D2: Central West $1,551,000 $1,449,188 3 14 112.5% 56.7% 63.9% -40.0% 77.3% 57.0% 0.0%
D3: Southwest $900,000 $863,333 3 14 102.7% 51.3% 45.1% 200.0% -17.3% -19.4% -25.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $755,000 $761,039 11 60 102.8% 13.5% -3.3% 266.7% -8.4% -3.5% 83.3%
D5: Central $1,500,000 $1,592,115 33 36 108.9% -2.7% 4.6% 65.0% 6.4% 11.8% -10.8%
D6: Central North $1,022,500 $1,160,111 18 51 108.2% -2.4% -6.5% 0.0% -6.1% -8.5% -18.2%
D7: North $1,562,500 $1,754,966 22 41 104.3% -10.7% -11.1% 29.4% 20.2% 8.4% -15.4%
D8: Northeast $1,100,000 $1,145,204 38 46 100.7% -13.2% -20.7% 26.7% -4.3% -15.0% 81.0%
D9: Central East $1,100,000 $1,201,105 64 49 99.0% -4.8% -5.0% -1.5% -7.8% -14.2% 3.2%
D10: Southeast $3 $4 3 1 0.0% -100.0% -100.0% 200.0% -100.0% -100.0% -25.0%

 

Airstruck Rates

Jan. 6, 2020 -- Unsettled markets are often the friend of homebuyers, as demand for riskier assets get pushed aside in favor of safety, and this tends to bring lower mortgage rates into the market. The yield on the influential 10-year Treasury note fell by about 15 basis points (0.15%) between midday Thursday and the close of business Friday, and while not all that change will move into mortgages, it's likely that something around half or perhaps a little bit more will. What's not clear at the moment is whether the downdraft will continue or how long it will stick around, but at the moment, there is downward pressure on rates.

Although they did firm up somewhat in the fourth quarter of 2019, mortgage rates have been holding at pretty low levels. In the last 12 weeks, conforming 30-year FRMs have held an average no higher than 3.75% and no lower than 3.66%, supporting both refinance activity and creating steady demand by potential homebuyers looking to get into the market. Lower mortgage rates may serve to foster this demand further, but this would be coming at a time when there is a dearth of available homes to buy and in the season where fewer homeowners are likely to put their houses up for sale. The tight inventory levels of the fall and into early winter have re-ignited home prices again, with prices up more than 5% in November compared to a year-ago level. To the extent that lower mortgage rates attract more potential homebuyers the issues of nothing to buy and decreasing affordability will likely worsen a bit more. The National Association of Realtors noted this week that their Pending Home Sales Index for November was up by 1.2% over October, so pressure may have already been increasing even as a lack of desirable, affordable homes continues to temper sales.

For the moment, we do see some downward pressure on interest rates; up until Thursday, we were starting to contemplate that the next move for mortgage rates might be a leg higher, given that underlying interest rates had been relatively elevated in recent weeks with no pass-through effect into mortgage rates. Now, with new risks injected into the days ahead, odds favor somewhat lower mortgage rates, at least until the dust settles, if it does.