Statistical Tables | | Volatile Markets Trim Mortgage Rate Uptick

Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
  Sep 19 Aug 19 Sep 18
Home Sales: 122 166 257
Median Price:  $1,540,000  $1,602,500  $1,295,000
Average Price:  $2,091,655  $1,838,712  $1,479,337
SP/LP: 109.0% 111.2% 110.2%
Days on Market: 28 26 25
(Lofts/Townhomes/TIC)
  Sep 19 Aug 19 Sep 18
Condo Sales: 185 201 224
Median Price:  $1,325,000  $1,288,000  $1,000,000
Average Price:  $1,448,292  $1,393,459  $1,156,163
SP/LP: 104.0% 104.9% 105.8%
Days on Market: 35 33 28

Condo Sales Prices Set New Highs

The median sales price for attached homes was up a whopping 32.5% year-over-year. It was up 2.9% from August.

The average sales price for attached homes jumped 25.3% year-over-year. It was up 3.8% from August.

Sales of both detached and attached homes in San Francisco have been lower than the year before five months in a row. Not only have they been lower, they have been significantly lower.

Home sales were down 62.5% from last September. There were 122 homes sold last month. There were 185 condos sold last month, down 17.4% year-over-year.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes popped 18.9% year-over-year. It was down 3.9% from August.

The average sales price jumped 41.4%  year-over-year. It was up 13.8% compared to August.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, was 109.0% for homes and 102.9% for condos/lofts. Both were lower than the month before.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was at 28 for homes and 35 for condos/lofts.

Momentum Statistics

Sales momentum…

for homes plummeted 11.8 points to –29.2. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 3.6 points to –14.6.

Pricing momentum…

for single-family homes rose 1.5 points to +5.1. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 2.9 points to +5.6.

Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations.

We calculate…

momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.  

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you're interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.

Monthly Statistics

Complete monthly sales statistics for Contra Costa County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.

September Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,540,000 $2,091,655 122 28 109.0% 18.9% 41.4% -52.5% -3.9% 13.8% -26.5%
D1: Northwest $2,100,000 $2,279,714 7 27 101.3% -20.8% -16.6% -36.4% -2.3% -3.4% -12.5%
D2: Central West $1,377,500 $1,450,267 26 28 114.9% -4.0% -2.8% -27.8% -13.0% -13.2% -18.8%
D3: Southwest $1,300,000 $1,296,455 11 15 116.8% 6.1% -2.4% 0.0% 5.7% -6.3% -26.7%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,680,000 $1,760,885 13 22 112.9% -5.2% -5.3% -35.0% 3.4% -0.7% -31.6%
D5: Central $1,255,000 $1,353,357 14 22 107.8% 56.1% 44.5% 28.6% 21.6% 35.7% -25.0%
D6: Central North $1,125,000 $1,125,000 1 12 102.3% -25.7% -42.9% -66.7% -60.9% -65.3% -66.7%
D7: North $4,100,000 $4,581,750 12 48 102.2% -33.9% -27.7% 140.0% 12.3% 12.4% 140.0%
D8: Northeast $805,000 $805,000 1 8 100.8% -86.0% -86.0% 0.0% -76.1% -76.1% -50.0%
D9: Central East $1,600,000 $2,212,143 7 39 107.9% 3.2% 31.9% -41.7% -0.3% 24.9% -63.2%
D10: Southeast $929,000 $956,344 22 40 105.3% 14.4% 14.7% -21.2% -7.0% -2.5% -33.3%

 

September Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
  Prices Unit     Yearly Change Monthly Change
  Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,325,000 $1,448,292 185 35 104.0% 32.5% 25.3% -17.4% 2.9% 3.9% -8.0%
D1: Northwest $1,037,500 $1,086,000 6 37 107.6% -35.2% -26.4% -33.3% -28.4% -27.1% -53.8%
D2: Central West $1,257,500 $1,206,250 4 22 122.4% 5.7% 1.4% 100.0% 39.7% 39.0% -20.0%
D3: Southwest $1,325,000 $1,283,000 3 95 101.8% 89.3% 83.3% 200.0% -0.1% 6.5% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $740,250 $740,250 2 10 109.8% -46.4% -46.4% 0.0% -33.6% -32.9% -50.0%
D5: Central $1,580,000 $1,579,720 25 23 111.9% 1.9% 9.9% 0.0% 8.6% -0.9% -3.8%
D6: Central North $1,265,000 $1,351,230 20 34 111.0% 8.4% 5.6% 42.9% -1.6% 0.6% -9.1%
D7: North $1,700,000 $2,069,464 29 19 101.2% 31.3% 52.4% 16.0% -6.8% 6.7% 7.4%
D8: Northeast $1,328,000 $1,463,690 21 64 101.3% 4.2% 0.8% -22.2% 2.2% -6.4% 0.0%
D9: Central East $1,285,000 $1,314,023 66 33 100.8% 24.8% 14.1% -4.3% 19.8% 7.7% -1.5%
D10: Southeast $750,000 $758,333 3 62 103.0% -1.6% 1.2% -50.0% 2.2% 8.3% -50.0%

 

Volatile Markets Trim Mortgage Rate Uptick

Sep. 27, 2019 -- Just a week after mortgage rates staged their biggest increase in several years, fresh concerns about the U.S. political climate spooked investors, and at least some money sloshed out of riskier investments and back in to the relative safety of sovereign bonds. This flare of demand helped push down yields and mortgage rates, with the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage taking back a bit more than half of the prior week's increase.

It's not uncommon to see rather more volatility in markets once we pass the Labor Day holiday, when quiet summer markets give way to a quickened pace of activity. Last year, for example, a very flat summer pattern for rates gave way to a several-week spike that saw rates kick more than a third of a percentage point higher. We may have been on a similar course, but the announcement this week that House Democrats will be opening a "formal" impeachment inquiry into President Trump's actions injected a new degree of uncertainty into the climate, and the corresponding measure of caution expressed by investors took the legs out from under the recent increase in yields and rates.

Last week's flare in mortgage rates (on top of a smaller one the week prior) had the expected effect on mortgage applications. In the week ending September 20, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 10.1% decline in applications for new mortgages, with a 3.1% decline in purchase-money apps accompanied by an unsurprising 15.2% decline in those for refinances. The change to the first group broke a 3-week string of gains; the second group has only two small positive weeks since a huge upward spike in early August. Since then, the trends for refinancing have largely been diminishing despite still-favorable mortgage rates.

There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have increased interest in the housing market. The National Association of Realtors reported that their Pending Home Sales Index moved 1.6% higher in August, an advance indication that existing home sales may continue a mild upward pattern, but limited inventories of homes available to buy will likely continue to be a tempering factor.

However, nothing to buy in the existing home market, rising incomes and more means improving times for sales in the new construction market, where sales of new homes rose 7.1% in August to a 713,000 annual pace. July's initial figure was also revised higher, so this uptrend is even enhanced to a degree. Stockpiles of unsold new homes had gotten a little bloated earlier this year, rising as high as 6.7 months of supply, but solid sales since May driven by builder price cutting has trimmed that back to just 5.5 months in September. Thinning inventories amid solid demand usually means rising prices, and rise they did, with the median price of a new home sold rising by 8.8% compared to those sold in July. As well, builders need to get busy again, as the 324,000 units built and ready to be sold was actually the smallest number since September 2018.